Indianapolis Colts fans can teach their new-to-American-football friends and family in the United Kingdom some key statistics to follow when the Colts face the Washington Commanders in London on Oct. 4 in a Week 4 matchup of 1-2 teams.
A low-scoring game with lots of Colts rushing yards and limited Commander passing production should add up to an Indianapolis win.
These three numbers will decide whether the Colts or the Commanders make the return trip across the Atlantic with a 2-2 record.
Three statistics that could decide the Indianapolis Colts versus the Washington Commanders in Week 4
The Colts can't allow the Commanders to score more than 28 points
The magic number for Washington is 28 points. The Commanders are 3-0 over the past two seasons when they score 28 points or more, including their surprise 33-31 win against the reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks last week.
Twenty-eight points is also a meaningful number for the Colts. Indianapolis is winless over the past two seasons when it allows more than 28 points – including both times it has happened this season.
The Colts’ chances would be even better if they hold the Commanders to 20 points or fewer. Washington is 0-7 over the past two seasons when it scores 20 points or fewer.
The Colts must outgain the Commanders on the ground
Washington has been a .500 team over the past two years when it generates more rushing yards than its opponent. However, the Commanders are just 1-9 over the past two seasons when the opponent has more rushing yards, and the one win was when the rushing differential was just one yard.
If Indianapolis can outgain Washington on the ground and pick up at least 120 rushing yards in the process, you can probably pencil in a Colts win. Indianapolis is 7-0 over the past two seasons when it accumulates 120 yards or more in the running game.
The Colts can't allow the Commanders a 100-yard advantage in the passing game
If the Commanders have a 100-yard advantage in passing yards on Sunday, that will mean something has gone horribly wrong for the Colts.
It will probably mean defeat. Indianapolis is 0-6 over the past two seasons when the opponent has an advantage of 112 passing yards or more.
If Washington racks up that kind of aerial advantage under the direction of backup quarterback Marcus Mariota, the Colts defense will need to take a long look in the mirror. The Commanders have outgained their opponent through the air just three times since the start of last season, and never by more than 65 yards.
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