An October loss to a team with a zero in the win column would haunt the Indianapolis Colts.
The Colts hope the numbers are in their favor when the winless Tennessee Titans visit Lucas Oil Stadium on Oct. 18. A win would give Indianapolis a .500 record through six games. A loss would be a horrifying sight.
These are the three stats that will determine if Indianapolis can scare up a win to even its record at 3-3, or if Tennessee will get its first victory of the 2026 season.
Three numbers that could spell success or doom for the Indianapolis Colts in Week 6
The Colts must hold the Titans to 290 total yards or less
An NFL team should win if it holds the opponent to 290 yards or fewer – which is why most NFL teams win when they play the Titans. Tennessee has been limited to 290 yards or fewer 14 times over the last two seasons. The Titans lost all 14 of those games.
The much-maligned Colt defense has held the opposition to 290 total yards or fewer five times over the past two seasons. One of those games was Indianapolis’ win in Tennessee in Week 3 last season.
It would be an added bonus if the Colts held the Titans to 20 points or less. Once again, an NFL team should win if it holds the opponent to 20 points or fewer. Once again, that is why most NFL teams win when they play Tennessee.
The Titans have been held to 20 points or less 16 times in 22 games over the past two seasons. They are 0-16 in those games, including both games against Indianapolis in 2025.
If the good version of the Colts defense shows up on Sunday, allowing 20 points or less is a realistic goal. Indianapolis fans are rightly concerned that the Colts defense has allowed 33 points or more in the team’s three losses this season. However, they shouldn’t forget the same unit yielded just 13 points and 17 points in the two wins.
The Colts must pick up 200 passing yards
If Daniel Jones and the Indianapolis offense can't rack up more than 200 passing yards, then the pieces are in place for a Tennessee upset (and a very upset crowd at Lucas Oil Stadium).
The Colts should be able to gain 200 yards through the air. Seventeen of the Titans’ 22 opponents over the last two seasons have amassed 200 passing yards. The Titans are 1-16 in the games they yielded 200 passing yards or more.
The Colts are a losing team (2-6) over the past two years when they don’t total 200 passing yards and a winning team (8-6) when they do. Indianapolis was well over 200 yards passing in its two wins against Tennessee last season.
The Colts must not lose the turnover battle
Tennessee needs extra possessions to have a chance. The Titans are 0-12 over the past two seasons when they have more giveaways than the opponent. Their only three wins are when they are even or hold an advantage in the turnover column.
The Indianapolis-Tennessee games last season were no exception. The Titans committed a turnover in each game. The Colts had none. Indianapolis won both games by three scores.
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