Zero and three. Those are the numbers you’ll hear the most leading up to the Indianapolis Colts’ home game against the Houston Texans on Sept. 27.
Both winless teams seek to avoid a 0-3 start to the 2026 season. A loss for the Colts likely ends their 2026 season, in terms of playoff contention, before it has really begun. NFL history says teams that start 0-3 have little more than a two percent chance of reaching the postseason.
Ironically, the Texans themselves made the playoffs last season after starting 0-3. The last team to do it before that? Also Houston, in 2018.
What numbers can help the Colts avoid the dreaded numbers zero and three?
Three numbers that will decide the Indianapolis Colts versus the Houston Texans
Keep an eye on the total points. A high-scoring game favors Indianapolis. Keep an eye on the rushing yardage. The Colts don’t have to dominate on the ground, but they can’t get dominated. And keep an eye on Indianapolis’ total yards. A total in the 200s means trouble. A total in the 300s means the Colts have a chance.
The Colts must score more than 16 points
Indianapolis can’t get locked in a defensive struggle with Houston. That’s exactly the type of game the Texans are built to win.
Houston is 8-1 over the past two seasons when it limits the opponent to 16 points or less. One of those games was in Week 13 last season, when the Texans beat the Colts 20-16 at Lucas Oil Stadium. Sixteen points was a single-game season low for Indianapolis last year.
The Colts are actually 0-9 over the past two seasons when they score 27 points or fewer. We’re thinking “more than 16 points” is a more realistic goal than “more than 27 points” for the Indianapolis offense against the stout Houston defense.
The Colts can’t get outgained on the ground by more than 44 yards
Houston isn’t known as a powerhouse running team, so when the Texans do have a significant advantage in rushing yards, they are virtually unbeatable.
The magic number seems to be a margin of 44 yards. Houston was 7-0 last season when it outrushed the opponent by 44 yards or more. One of those games was the season finale last year, when the Texans enjoyed a 58-yard rushing advantage over the Colts during a 38-30 victory.
The Colts must gain closer to 360 yards than 230 yards
Houston is 6-0 over the last two years when it holds the opponent to 230 total yards or less. That’s not exactly a news flash – a team should win if it holds the opponent to 230 yards or less. What’s impressive is that the Texans have kept opponents below that number six times in 19 games.
(If you’re wondering, the Colts have held the opponent under 230 total yards just twice over the past two seasons.)
Looking at things more optimistically, if Indianapolis can somehow get to 360 total yards, the chances of winning increase exponentially. The Texans have yielded 360 total yards or more just twice over the last two seasons. They lost both times.
Meanwhile, the Colts are 6-1 over the last two seasons when they’ve reached 360 total yards - and the one loss was Week 9 at Pittsburgh last season, when the defining stat was Indianapolis’ six turnovers.
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