The numbers don’t lie. Despite a shaky start to the 2026 season, the Indianapolis Colts have a chance to move above the .500 mark this weekend,
The Colts visit the Pittsburgh Steelers on Oct. 11 in a matchup of 2-2 squads. If Indianapolis can avoid turnovers, gain steady yardage on the ground, and hit the right scoring benchmarks, the numbers point to the Colts winning their third game in a row after a 0-2 start.
These three numbers will decide whether the Colts or the Steelers move to 3-2 on the season.
Statistics that could decide the Indianapolis Colts versus the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 5
The Colts cannot lose the turnover battle
Pittsburgh’s tale of the turnovers is straightforward. When the Steelers have fewer turnovers than their opponent, they win.
Pittsburgh is 10-1 since the start of last season, when it won the turnover battle, including a 27-20 victory against Indianapolis in Week 9 of last season, when the Colts turned the ball over six times. The Steelers are a mere 2-8 when they don’t enjoy an advantage in the turnover column.
Indianapolis can put itself in a strong position for a win if the defense can force two takeaways. Pittsburgh is 0-8 over the past two seasons when it has two or more giveaways.
The Colts cannot get shut down on the ground
Pittsburgh has been unbeatable over the past two seasons when it stuffs the opponent’s rushing game. The Steelers are 5-0 since the start of the 2025 season, when they have limited opponents to 70 rushing yards or fewer.
Thinking there’s no way Indianapolis’ Jonathan Taylor-led running game would finish a game with fewer than 70 yards? It happened against Pittsburgh just last year. The Colts finished with a season-low 55 rushing yards in their loss against the Steelers in 2025.
The magic numbers are 19 and 25
Take your pick, Indianapolis fans. The Colts either need to limit the Steelers to 19 points or fewer, or they need to score more than 25 points of their own.
Pittsburgh is 0-6 over the past two seasons when it scores 19 points or fewer. The Colts, for their part, are 5-1 when they’ve kept the opponent from reaching 20 points.
If you’d rather put the game in the hands of the Indy offense, you need to see the Colts put up at least 25 points. The Steelers are 2-8 since the start of the 2025 season when they allowed 25 points or more. Neither happened for the Colts last year. They allowed 27. They scored 20.
The Colts should also send a nasty note to the scheduler
A few more numbers to digest: The Steelers enter this game with 10 days of rest after a 137-mile trip to Cleveland last Thursday. The Colts have just the usual one week of rest after a 4,000-mile journey to London, where they beat the Washington Commanders on Oct. 4.
Indianapolis fans should be displeased with the NFL’s scheduler, but they can take heart in a few numbers. The one time the Colts didn’t get a bye after an international game? They won 29-23 against the Chicago Bears, though, at home in 2016.
Pittsburgh is 14-7 in games following Thursday contests since the start of the 2007 season. One of those losses? Against Indianapolis in 2023.
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