The Indianapolis Colts couldn’t beat a winless team in Week 6. Now they have to face an undefeated one.
Indianapolis is fresh off a 26-20 loss on October 18 against a Tennessee Titans team that came to Lucas Oil Stadium with a 0-5 record – a performance so poor that general manager Chris Ballard was fired the day after the game. The Colts now travel north to Minnesota on Oct. 25 to face a 5-0 Vikings team that boasts the most dominant defense in the NFL.
The numbers don’t seem aligned for a win, but here are the three stats that must go Indianapolis’ way for the Colts to have a chance.
Numbers to know for the Indianapolis Colts versus the Minnesota Vikings
The Indianapolis Colts must score more than 17 points
It will be a challenge for Indianapolis to score any points against the Minnesota defense, which allows fewer than 13 points per game and is the best in the league by most measures.
However, the Colts absolutely, positively, must find a way to score more than 17 points to have any chance of pulling off the upset. The Vikings are 10-0 over the past two seasons when they limit the opponent to 17 points or fewer.
On the other side of the ball, Indianapolis cannot allow more than 23 points. Minnesota is 9-0 over the past two seasons when it scores 23 points or more. The dominant defense means the Vikings don’t need to score in bunches to win.
The Colts must win in the run game
You can pick the exact number to watch, but all indications are that Indianapolis has to win in the rushing yards column to win in Minnesota.
The Vikings are 10-1 over the past two seasons when they pile up more rushing yards than their opponent. That includes a 7-0 record when Minnesota finished with 121 rushing yards or more.
If you are one of the few glass-half-full Colts fans remaining, and the Indianapolis can somehow manage more than 140 rushing yards, they’ve got a great chance to pull off the upset. The Vikings are 0-4 over the past two years when the opponent cracks 140 yards on the ground.
And guess what - the Colts surpassed that number this past week (not that it helped in the meltdown against the Titans).
The Colts must gain more than 255 total yards
If Indianapolis produces more than 400 total yards, that would almost guarantee a win. The Colts are 5-0 over the past two seasons when the offense generates 400 total yards.
A 400-yard performance probably isn’t a realistic goal against the Minnesota defense, so here’s a more manageable target: Indianapolis must gain at least 255 total yards to have a chance. The Colts are 0-4 since the start of the 2025 season, when they finished with 255 total yards or fewer.
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