They can’t both lose: The Indianapolis Colts – what’s left of them – host the Miami Dolphins on November 15 in a matchup of teams that have combined for a 3-14 record this fall. Someone’s losing streak has to end. These are the key numbers to watch during Sunday’s matchup at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Quick note: We usually look at the patterns and trends from the last two seasons, but we’re only looking at the 2026 stats for the Dolphins. The Miami numbers from last year are almost meaningless, as the Dolphins have a first-year coach, a new quarterback, and relatively few holdovers from the 2025 roster.
(In other words, Indianapolis fans, what you see from the Dolphins this week is probably a preview of the type of roster the Colts will field in 2027.
Numbers that might decide the Indianapolis Colts versus the Miami Dolphins in Week 10
The Indianapolis Colts must not allow more than 28 points
The magic number is 28 points. Miami’s only win this season came when they hit that number in a 28-25 victory against the New York Jets in Week 7. And Indianapolis is 0-7 over the past two seasons when it allows 28 points or more.
The Colts would gladly accept a replay of the Indianapolis-Miami matchup in Week 1 last season, which Indianapolis won 33-8.
The Colts must get to 90 rushing yards
Jonathan Taylor is still a Colt, Seth McGowan looks better with each game, and Indianapolis traded away its top two wide receivers this week. Common sense says the Colts have no choice but to lean on their running game this week.
If Indianapolis can get to 90 rushing yards, that means the Colts have better than a 50-50 chance of winning. Indianapolis is 9-7 over the past two seasons when it cracks 90 rushing yards. The Colts are 1-9 if they don’t.
If you’re wondering, Indianapolis piled up 156 rushing yards in the Week 1 win against Miami last season.
The Colts must (finally) win the turnover battle
Indianapolis hasn’t had a giveaway-takeaway advantage in a single game this season. Not surprisingly, the Colts are tied for last in the league in turnover margin (with New England) at -11.
If there was ever a week to reverse that trend, it’s this one. The Dolphins’ only win this season came in the only game in which they won the turnover battle. If Indianapolis doesn’t gift Miami with extra possessions, the numbers say the Colts have a strong chance to end their five-game losing streak.
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