The numbers are ugly. As Indianapolis Colts fans are well aware, their team hasn’t won in Jacksonville since the 2014 season.
Indianapolis tries to end a 10-game losing streak on the Jaguars’ home field on Nov. 1. The numbers aren’t encouraging. Colts (2-5) are mired in a three-game losing streak and spent the week trading away some of their top players. Jacksonville leads the AFC South with a 4-2 record.
Not only has Indianapolis not won at Everbank Stadium since 2014, but most of the games haven’t been close. The average score has been a 31-15 Jaguar win. Jacksonville has scored at least 30 points in six of the games. The last two shutout losses in Indianapolis’ franchise history happened at Jacksonville.
Numbers that matter for the Indianapolis Colts in Week 8
Still, all bad things must come to an end. These three statistics will determine if Indianapolis can end more than a decade of disappointing trips to Duval County.
The Colts must not allow the Jaguars to score more than 31 points
Indianapolis can’t get into an offensive shootout against this Jacksonville team. The Jaguars are 7-0 since the start of the 2025 season, when they scored more than 31 points. That includes the Colts’ franchise-altering 36-19 loss at Jacksonville in Week 14 of last season – the game quarterback Daniel Jones suffered a torn right Achilles tendon.
The Colts must outgain the Jaguars in the passing game
It’ll be a tall order for Jones and Indianapolis to outgain Trevor Lawrence and Jacksonville through the air – but they’re going to have to find a way.
The Jaguars have leaned on the passing game for success in their two seasons under coach Liam Coen. Jacksonville is 10-1 since the start of the 2025 season, when it finished with more passing yards than its opponent. More precisely, the Jaguars are 12-1 over the past two seasons when they limit the opponent to 275 passing yards or fewer.
Those numbers help explain why Jacksonville swept Indianapolis in 2025. The Jaguars limited the Colts to well under 275 passing yards and enjoyed an advantage in total passing yards in both games.
A worrisome sign for Indianapolis: Jones and the Colts haven’t thrown for 275 yards yet this season.
The Colts must not commit two more turnovers than the Jaguars
Normally, the goal would be to avoid losing the turnover battle, period. That doesn’t seem to be a reliable goal for the 2026 Colts, who haven’t had the advantage in turnover differential in a single game this season.
Thankfully for Indianapolis, there has been room for error against the Jaguars in the turnover department over the past two seasons. Turnover differential doesn’t seem to impact Jacksonville’s success unless the Jaguars have a two-takeaway advantage. When Jacksonville has two more takeaways than giveaways, it is 10-0 since the start of the 2025 season.
The Jaguars are 7-6 in all other games. Bizarrely, Jacksonville is 3-0 since the start of 2025, when it lost the turnover battle. (No, we’re not suggesting the Colts should aim to commit more turnovers than the Jaguars on Sunday.)
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