Before his injury, there was a lot of speculation about which NFL team Daniel Jones would be playing for in 2026. Through the first half of 2025, the 2019 first-rounder had revived his career, leading the most explosive offense in the NFL. He had seemed to find a professional soulmate in Indianapolis Colts head coach Shane Steichen.
Public statements from both player and team suggested they were eager to work out a long-term deal after the season. Then, of course, Jones tore his Achilles, and everything was thrown into a state of uncertainty.
Strangely, in most people’s minds, that injury seemed to make a return to Indy more likely, albeit perhaps on a shorter, less valuable contract. The Colts certainly appeared to be the team most likely to show faith and wait out his eventual return. But what if that thinking is wrong?
Is Daniel Jones’ return to the Indianapolis Colts a slam dunk in 2026?
As the names of free agents and trade candidates are being thrown around, Jones’ name is mostly absent, and for a legitimate reason. No one knows when he will be healthy enough to play. For the Colts, the most common assumption is that Jones re-signs short-term, Indy finds a low-cost option to fill in until he gets back on the field, hopefully not too late into next season.
In a perfect world, that replacement would be Riley Leonard. Or, if the relationship isn’t too broken, perhaps Anthony Richardson. Either way, it is someone already under contract at a reasonable price.
But the enormous fly in the ointment here is that another team could decide Daniel Jones would cure all their problems. They decide they can wait out a chunk of 2026 for him. They make him a very attractive, long-term offer. And Chris Ballard has a major decision on his hands.
How high does Ballard go on a QB coming off a serious injury who, less than a year ago, was seen as washed up despite being just 27 years old?
It only takes one eager team to drive the price sky high. Quarterbacks are in such demand that it could very well happen.
Fortunately for the Colts, the team most commonly linked to Jones – apart from Indy itself – is the Minnesota Vikings, and they are in salary cap hell. It’s hard to envision how they could outbid anyone, even with some roster juggling and creative bookkeeping.
But there are teams much better situated to make a run.
The Colts have decent cap space as of now, and they may be able to create more. But they also have several of their own free agents to potentially re-sign, including Nick Cross, Germaine Pratt, and especially Alec Pierce.
The Arizona Cardinals have more space. Might this be the year they move on from Kyler Murray?
The Pittsburgh Steelers have more space. It may seem outlandish, but wouldn’t Aaron Rodgers be the ideal “bridge” quarterback for a team awaiting Jones’ return to health?
And the entire NFL seems convinced that the Raiders are taking Fernando Mendoza with the top pick in the draft. But what if the still-unknown new coach in Las Vegas isn’t really sold on Mendoza? What if Tom Brady has questions? Is it really so far-fetched to imagine them trading the top pick for major draft capital and then using their huge cap space surplus to make Jones an offer he can’t refuse?
The Raiders could try to get along with Aidan O’Connell or Kenny Pickett for a while and then turn things over to Jones. Meanwhile, they begin a serious rebuild of a depleted roster by trading the right to draft Mendoza as well as their one huge star, Maxx Crosby.
Are you telling me that is not even a possibility? It's not all that far removed from the plan Seattle rode to the Super Bowl this year, with Jones playing the role of Sam Darnold.
Chris Ballard holds one get-out-of-jail-free card. Well, actually, it’s far from free. He can franchise tag Jones and ensure he remains for one more season. The idea would be to buy some time while negotiating the extension.
But that’s a lot to pay to buy some time. Current projections put the price for a tagged QB in 2026 to come in around 47 million dollars.
And since franchising a quarterback in consecutive years amounts to fiscal suicide, Ballard would be pushing all his chips in on getting a deal done for 2027 since he would have no more leverage, would have wasted a year on resolving the QB problem, and by that point, wouldn’t even have a cheap option in Richardson still under contract.
It would be a major gamble for any team to offer a big, long-term contract to Daiel Jones at this point, so this gloom and doom scenario may never come to fruition. But it could. Desperate GMs resort to desperate measures. Chris Ballard needs to have his contingency plans lined up, and they had better not include any quadragenarians.