Of all the unlikely stats that fill Indianapolis Colts general manager Chris Ballard’s resume, this may be the unlikeliest of them all. He has been with the Colts since 2017, and he has yet to put together a division-winning roster.
That’s not easy to do. 21 of the NFL’s 32 franchises – just about two-thirds of the clubs – have at least one division title to their credit since 2017. But the Colts last claimed the AFC South in 2014.
Remember those days? If you don’t, ask your dad. Maybe your grandpa. Castanzo and Cherilus at tackle. D’Qwell, Jerrell, and Bjoern are manning the linebacker positions. The dynamic duo of Fleener and Allen produced 16 touchdowns at tight end. Ah, memories.
Could this be year that the Indianapolis Colts break their AFC South drought?
It sure looked like 2025 would put long-suffering fans out of their misery. Shane Steichen’s men were flying high through the first half of the season. Sure, they took advantage of an easy schedule. But they actually battled the LA Rams to a virtual draw in week four and would have won the game if not for a brain-dead play by receiver Adonai Mitchell.
No need to rehash what happened in the second half of the season. Suffice to say, 2014 still stands as the last season in which the Colts took the division title.
2026 does not shape up very well on paper. Not only is there potential of a hangover from last year’s collapse, but QB Daniel Jones is coming off an injury, as are several vital defenders like DeForest Buckner and Charvarius Ward. Ballard would appear to have lost more than he added in free agency, and the defense has seen massive turnover.
Defending champion Jacksonville has a dynamic young coach (and apparently some new hotshot QB with short hair). The Houston Texans won in 2024 and 2023 and have claimed six titles since the Colts last won. Tennessee, the recent cellar dweller, has a new coach, an ascending QB, and a new wide receiver who is garnering a lot of attention. (The Titans won the division in 2020 and 2021.)
However, I am here to offer some hope to beleaguered Colts’ fans. It comes directly from this one rather odd stat.
The NFL has 55 games scheduled in primetime in the 2026 regular season. That creates 110 slots for teams. The AFC South clubs account for nine of those slots. That is the lowest total in the league.
Of course, schedules do not guarantee anything. The NFL gives its most popular teams a lot of primetime slots regardless of their actual talent. (This is known in NFL scheduling circles as the “Dallas Cowboys coefficient.”)
Still, there is a broad correlation between quality and primetime visibility. The Los Angeles Rams, who are currently considered the favorites to win the Super Bowl, have the most primetime games with seven. That’s just two fewer than the entire AFC South.
The Seattle Seahawks, the defending champs, are in a cluster of high-profile teams with six primetime games on their schedule. Though perennial media darlings Dallas and Kansas City also have six primetime games, they are the only two squads – out of ten total – who did not make the playoffs last year and have five or more primetime games on their schedule this year.
The AFC South is led by Houston with four primetime games. Jacksonville has three, and the Colts have two. Tennessee is one of five teams who is not scheduled to appear in primetime at all.
That means the AFC South gets nine appearances. The NFC South has ten, and the AFC East has eleven. The NFC’s three other divisions have either 18 or 19 such appearances.
So the bottom line is that, at least in the eyes of the schedule makers, the AFC South simply doesn’t have very good teams.
Houston has a great defense, but based on the way quarterback C.J. Stroud finished his 2025 season, there have to be questions about his ability to regain the form of his sensational rookie campaign.
The Jags' three appearances tied them with Carolina for the fewest primetime games for a defending division champ. They had just about the quietest offseason in the league. They lost Travis Etienne, Devin Lloyd, and Greg Newsome and replaced them with … well, pretty much no one.
Tennessee, despite some promising players, is still Tennessee. They have one of the least-talented rosters in the league.
So the door is open for the Colts. They don’t have to play exceptional football. They just have to get back to where they were early last season. Even if Jones takes a few weeks to round into form, they shouldn’t have to worry too much about falling far behind in September. No team is likely to run away with the AFC South in 2026.
The Colts play the teams from the AFC North this season. That division only got 12 primetime games. The teams are pretty good, but beatable. Added to the middle-of-pack teams from their own division, Ballard and Steichen have no real excuses not to win this season.
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