The Indianapolis Colts are still unbeaten. Sure, only three games have been played, and there is a lot of time left for the season to change. Or maybe things get even better. Indy has an efficient offense, and the defense has some good pieces.
But the Los Angeles Rams are going to be the toughest challenge that Indianapolis has faced this season. Only the Denver Broncos are what anyone could maybe call a good team that Indy has seen in the early part of the year. The Miami Dolphins and Tennessee Titans are terrible.
Indianapolis is going to learn a lot about itself in the next month. After the Rams, the Colts will play the Las Vegas Raiders (an iffy team with a potentially good offense), the improved Arizona Cardinals, and the Los Angeles Chargers. A 3-0 start could easily turn into 4-3.
Somewhat bold predictions for the Indianapolis Colts versus the Los Angeles Rams in Week 4
Or maybe the Rams have some defensive weaknesses that Indianapolis head coach Shane Steichen and quarterback Daniel Jones could take advantage of. LA is good, but some raw numbers suggest they aren't great. That means some unexpected things could happen in Week 4. Maybe.
Daniel Jones completes 70 percent of his passes and gets sacked only once
Jones going from extremely efficient to suddenly not in Shane Steichen's system seems like a stretch. Jones is going to complete a good number of his passes, but those might be short and non-explosive.
Indianapolis's quarterback has only been sacked twice this season, and a big reason is the way the offense is structured. The Colts have a good offensive line, but any offensive line is going to give up pressure if the quarterback holds the ball too long. Jones doesn't do that naturally, and the scheme augments his strengths.
The Rams can get pressure against almost all teams. So can the Broncos. Denver and LA are tied atop the NFL with 12 sacks each. Denver has had six sacks in one game, five in another, but just one against Indy. At some point, Jones is going to get sacked multiple times in a game, but not in Week 4.
Jonathan Taylor runs for 70 yards, but much of that is on one run
Los Angeles is also good against the run. They basically shut Saquon Barkley down in Week 3 (18 carries for just 46 yards) in a Rams 33-26 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. LA has a stout front and doesn't need to bring extra help to stuff the run. No matter how good Indy's O-line is, Taylor is going to have difficulties getting rushing yards.
Still, totally stopping Taylor is not going to happen, either. He is going to have 20 carries for 70 yards, but one of those will be for 30 yards a touchdown.
Lou Anarumo's scheme gets completely exposed by Sean McVay
This is the part where things go badly for Indianapolis. Even while winning its first three games, Indy's defense hasn't been overly good. The Colts allow 4.8 yards per carry, 24th in the league. Indianapolis's pressure rate is 15.9 percent, which is 28th in the NFL.
Anarumo's scheme looks better than it is because Indianapolis simply hasn't played teams whose offenses were operating at a high level. Quarterback Matthew Stafford, running back Kyren Williams, and the rest of the Rams' offense are a different beast.
The way it is built is exactly how a team would need to be to decimate the Indianapolis defense. The game might come down to which team scores more points, and while the Colts' offense hasn't punted much, it does kick too many field goals. The Rams will probably score 35 points, and Anarumo will have no answers for how to stop them.
The Colts lose their first game of the season
Winning on the road in the NFL is normally tough against any team, but Colts fans could take up a decent portion of the stadium. The problem isn't that the Indianapolis Colts have to travel for Week 4, but that the Rams' offense is a bad match for Lou Anarumo's defense.
This would be the case even if cornerback Kenny Moore was healthy. This is the elite scheme of Sean McVay versus an inefficient one by Indy's DC. Matthew Stafford isn't going to throw for 400 yards, but he will toss three touchdown passes, and Kyren Williams will run for two while rushing for 125 yards. LA wins 35-23.