Divisional games are always a toss-up, and before last season, Shane Steichen had done fairly well against the Houston Texans. He was 2-2 against them in his first two years with the Indianapolis Colts before things took a turn last season.
DeMeco Ryans' team swept the regular-season series in 2025, and while the second loss came in a meaningless Week 18 game with the Colts already out of contention, it still stung. It just can't be an omen of what's to come.
However, with the Colts slightly improving their offense this offseason, plus their already scary defense, it looks like everybody around the league is buying their stock. More than that, they consider them legitimate contenders.
The Houston Texans could be a big problem for the Indianapolis Colts
That hype may have reached new heights when ESPN analyst Aaron Schatz predicted that they'll be the last team standing in the AFC. Needless to say, that scenario would be an absolute catastrophe for Steichen's side.
"You know about their defense, which is one of the two or three best in the NFL. The offense made improvements on the offensive line; the addition of running back David Montgomery and the return of wide receiver Tank Dell (knee) should move them up above the league average," Schatz wrote.
The Colts only managed 281 yards of total offense in their first meeting of last season, even with Daniel Jones on the field. They failed to convert on two fourth-down attempts and only went 2-of-four in the red zone. That won't cut it in 2026, especially with David Montgomery taking running back duties from the aging Nick Chubb.
Ryans' defense is one of the most physical in the game. They don't rely on motion or disguised coverages to get the job done; they just line up and dare opposing teams to outhustle and outwork them. That old-school, hard-hitting mentality might not be common nowadays, but it's certainly efficient.
Stakes have never been higher for Steichen. He was signed to lead the Colts back to the playoffs, and as an offensive specialist, he'll just have to crack the code and figure out how to put his guys in a position to succeed against this mauling defense. Then, on the other side of the field, putting pressure on the inconsistent C.J. Stroud will be paramount to make life tough for the divisional rivals.
Given how quickly the Texans rebuilt their team after moving on from Deshaun Watson and how the Jacksonville Jaguars have also become a playoff-caliber team, it just feels like the Colts absolutely wasted their window in the AFC South. Of course, their quarterback carousel had plenty to do with that, but now, it's not entirely clear if they're on the same tier as their divisional rivals.
This hype and all the predictions also highlight how far along the Texans might be in the divisional race. Unless the Colts do something about it and get in their way to the top, a Texans' Super Bowl run and another regular-season sweep could cost plenty of people their jobs in Indianapolis.
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