Things just got a whole lot tougher over the next few seasons for the Indianapolis Colts now that their AFC South rivals, the Jacksonville Jaguars, just set themselves up for a Super Bowl run not only this season, but the next few.
While the Jaguars went all in with trades for safety Jessie Bates III and defensive tackles Jordan Davis and Davon Godchaux, the Colts have shed three players in the last two weeks: guard Quenton Nelson, defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, and wide receiver Josh Downs. One team is going up; another is going down.
The team going up, the Jaguars, just opened up their Super Bowl window past this season (re-signing Bates in the offseason could be key), and that's a problem for the Colts on several levels. The division could solely belong to Jacksonville for a few years. As for the Colts, after what the Jaguars just did, they're likely entering a window of looking up, rather than behind.
NFL trade deadline knocked the Indianapolis Colts back a few years while they watch their rivals contend
Of course, a Jaguars-dominated AFC South over the next few years also depends heavily on the Houston Texans. Will DeMeco Ryans put his defense back together? Is C.J. Stroud their long-term quarterback? Houston has questions of its own, much like the Colts; only the latter has bigger, more pressing ones today.
As it relates directly to the Colts and the Jaguars, however, there are several reasons why Colts fans should feel uneasy about the immediate future and, very possibly, the next few years. The most obvious is that the Colts are likely to extend their playoff drought, while the Jaguars enjoy extended playoff runs and championship contention.
On top of that, the Jaguars' moves this week indicate a full-on win-now trajectory, while the Colts are doing the opposite. While the Jaguars mortgaged future draft picks for talent today, the Colts have pivoted into a fire sale and rebuild. They're likely to fire Shane Steichen in the offseason, and Daniel Jones is likely to be gone. The Jaguars have their head coach-quarterback duo set in stone.
Then there is the divisional pressure factor—Jacksonville's recent aggressiveness has raised the standard for what division opponents must do to compete. For the Texans, it's less of a problem if their defense improves. For the Colts, it's a disaster right now.
While the Jaguars' trades worsened the situation, the Colts were already forcing themselves into a teardown-and-rebuild scenario. Remember, they traded Nelson and Buckner a week before the deadline, and the Jaguars were firmly planted at the top of the division. Clearly, the Colts' front office saw no chance of competing.
All of this being said, the Jaguars were already running the division, but their all-in trades this week just shut the door even louder on the Colts. For the next two to three years, at least, barring a complete Trevor Lawrence breakdown, the AFC South should belong to the Jaguars, while the Colts heal from self-inflicted wounds.
It could be a long stretch before Colts fans see their team back in a spot of contention. To make matters worse, more salt will enter the wound before the summer break; the Colts still have seven games left.
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