Tyler Warren, a highly vaunted tight end prospect, was crowned by many the steal of this year's draft. Warren was the pipe dream of Indianapolis Colts fans for months leading up to the draft, but everything seemed to point to him not being available for them at 14.
Miraculously, all it took was a lucky combination of teams prioritizing other positions (and the Bears' polarizing choice of fellow tight end Colston Loveland) for Warren to be sitting perfectly on the board for them. Needless to say, Chris Ballard and company nearly tripped over themselves rushing to get to the podium and make Warren a Colt.
Fast forward a few months, and we finally get to see Warren in action. OTAs is by no means an absolute indicator of the caliber that a player will ultimately end up being in the NFL, but a strong performance can only add to the growing hype around a prospect. Warren is having that strong performance, and it shows in the betting odds.
Tyler Warren of the Indianapolis Colts could be very special
According to the betting odds tracker from Sportsbettingdime.com (which averages the odds of top sportsbooks), Warren's offensive rookie of the year stock has shot up from +2875 to +2800 in just the single month since training camp has started. Admittedly, a 75-point jump isn't a massive one, but it does show that the national media are taking notice of Warren's stellar OTA performance.
The mountain to climb for Warren to reach the heights of the NFL's offensive rookie of the year is a staggering one, so expectations should be tempered. In the fifty eight years since the award's inception in 1967, a tight end has never brought the award home.
In fact, the feat has only ever been accomplished by eleven receivers, with the most recent being Garrett Wilson of the Jets back in 2022.
Still, rest easy Colts faithful, and remember that just because something has never been done does not mean that it can’t be. When going over an award with such a long history, one has to contextualize how the evolution of that history has impacted positional chances to win the award.
Before 2000, the NFL was a league where the running game was king, and the passing element took a backseat. This was reflected in the rookie of the year standings, as 24 out of 32 possible OROYs were running backs, a staggering 75%.
Contrast this with the post-2000 award-winners, and we see a different story, with 16 out of 24 award-winners being either quarterbacks or wide receivers. This makes them the majority against running backs in the 2000s, having taken home the award 66% of the time.
Some might point to the fact that just last season, Brock Bowers had arguably the best rookie tight end season of all time, and he still couldn't net the award. However, just like with the historical standings of past OROY winners, context is key.
Yes, Bowers had a spectacular season, but the competition he was up against for Offensive Rookie of the Year was far stiffer than what Warren is potentially facing. Chief among Bowers' competitors was Jayden Daniels, who put together one of the greatest rookie quarterback seasons of all time, bringing the lowly Commanders from the second overall pick in 2024 to one game shy of the Super Bowl in 2025.
While the 2025 rookie class is undoubtedly talented, that talent was concentrated in other positions than quarterback, which has dominated the OROY field in recent years. Outside of number one overall pick Cam Ward, only one quarterback was taken in the first round, with the Giants' selection of Jaxson Dart at 25.
That's certainly a far cry from the 2024 class, which featured a record six(!) quarterbacks in just the first 12 picks. In fact, that class set another record offensively, as not a single defensive player was taken until the Colts' very own Laiatu Latu at 15.
Needless to say, Warren's competition, while still very top-heavy with a few strong candidates leading the pack, is nowhere near the herculean group Bowers was faced with last year
If Bowers could put together a season as amazing as he did with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell at quarterback as a rookie tight end (which notoriously has a steep learning curve for the NFL), is it impossible to say Warren could put up similar numbers with a potential Anthony Richardson resurgence?
It may not be likely, but it would be wrong to say it lies outside the realm of possibility. Today's league is one defined by passing, and with the recent success of offenses leaning on TEs as their number one options (see: Chiefs and Kelce, Raiders and Bowers), it is no stretch to say that with a stellar enough season, Warren could be the first tight end to win the award in NFL History.