Let’s start with this. Shane Steichen is not trying to lose. You’d be surprised how often I have seen that opinion expressed in the past few hours. From the moment he made the somewhat surprising announcement that Daniel Jones would be the Indianapolis Colts' starting quarterback over the number four pick in the 2023 draft, Anthony Richardson, wild theories have run rampant.
Steichen knows full well that this decision will determine his future with the Colts and quite possibly his future head coaching prospects. If it blows up, he will not live it down.
Richardson would have been the safer choice. Not safe in terms of the Colts’ likely success. Rather, safe in terms of Steichen’s responsibility. Almost everyone assumed AR5 would be the choice.
Why did Shane Steichen choose Daniel Jones as the Colts' starting quarterback?
What’s more, we all assumed that was the choice Colts’ management wanted the coach to make. If Steichen chooses Richardson and that move blows up, blame could be spread around the front office as well as on the coach.
But that’s not what Steichen did. So if nothing else, you have to applaud the guts he showed in making an unpopular choice. If Jones flames out, that applause will be short-lived.
On one level, this was just a number’s game. And those numbers are fairly clear.
69 NFL starts for Jones versus 15 for Richardson. A 64.1 percent completion percentage for Jones, which is right around the league average, versus a 50.6 percent completion percentage for Richardson, which is stunningly poor in today’s NFL.
Their touchdown percentage is roughly equivalent, but Richardson’s interception percentage is almost twice that of Jones. Again, Jones is right at the league average. Richardson is the worst among all starting quarterbacks.
Even where AR5 has a statistical advantage – primarily as a runner – the gap is not as big as you might expect. Daniel Jones is a very good runner. Not Anthony Richardson-level good, but good nonetheless.
It is not hard to make the case that Jones is a more mature, polished quarterback who is more capable of winning now.
The only problem with that argument is Jones’ record. He has not won. He has lost. A lot.
In order to explain that away, you have to accept that Daniel Jones had the misfortune of playing with some of the worst offensive personnel in recent memory. The Giants’ offensive line was atrocious for much of his time in New York.
Before finally getting Malik Nabers in 2024, Jones’ top wide receivers from 2021-2023 had been Kedarius Toney, Richie James, and Wan’Dale Robinson. His one true star, Saquon Barkely, missed almost one-third of the Giants’ games during Jones’ time with the club.
Daniel Jones was dealt a bad hand. And he was not good enough to overcome it. The question for him now is, can he thrive with better talent around him? Steichen is obviously betting that he can.
I assumed two things about this quarterback competition, and I was wrong about both. I figured that if the contest between the two contenders was even, the decision would favor Richardson, the cheaper, home-grown option with the higher ceiling.
I also guessed that Jones would outplay AR5 in preseason by a wide enough margin that there wouldn’t be much controversy. Jones would be the obvious choice.
But Jones did not outplay Richardson. From what we could see from the outside, they were roughly even. Somehow, my two incorrect assumptions cancelled each other out, and my original conclusion, that Jones would be the starter this year, came to fruition. I think that has something to do with differential calculus, or maybe fractals. I was never very good at math.
Ultimately, we have to recognize that as fans, we are not privy to everything that happens in a training camp. We have to assume that the more experienced Jones exhibited the types of skills that give Indy a better chance of winning. Ultimately, a decision like this isn’t about what the fans want or what ownership wants.
It’s not even about what the coaches want or what the two QBs want. It’s about the other 51 men in the locker room. If they don’t believe that Daniel Jones is the better choice, then Steichen has already lost the team. As fans, we can only hope he read the tea leaves correctly.