Entering the 2025 NFL season, the Indianapolis Colts had extremely low expectations. NFL analysts consistently ranked the Colts as among the league’s worst, as low as 31st in some preseason power rankings.
Back in August, FanSided projected Indianapolis as the worst team in the weak AFC South. A QB dilemma — and plenty of other question marks — was not a cause for optimism.
Daniel Jones and the Colts have proven a lot of doubters wrong over the last two weeks. A completely unexpected 2-0 start has reshaped perceptions of Indianapolis. Deservedly, people are noticing, and the team’s stock is skyrocketing.
Indianapolis Colts have a 73 percent chance of making the 2025 NFL playoffs
Beyond earning the respect of the NFL community, the Colts’ back-to-back wins have also boosted their playoff odds. Suddenly, the idea that Indianapolis could make it to the postseason for the first time in four years isn’t far-fetched.
According to ESPN Analytics, Indianapolis had just a 34% chance of qualifying for the playoffs. That probability jumped to 59% after routing the Miami Dolphins in Week 1 before jumping again to 73% after a dramatic Week 2 win over the Denver Broncos. The Colts have more than doubled their playoff chances in just 10 days.
Indianapolis is also the odds-on favorite to win the AFC South — a feat the Colts haven’t accomplished in over a decade. The Colts are currently in first place as the only remaining undefeated team in the division.
Per ESPN, Indianapolis’ division title chances stand at 57%. The Texans and the Titans are both still winless, so the Jaguars (1-1 record) have the next-best odds of 30%.
If you trust the numbers, then a deep playoff run isn’t out of the realm of possibility for the Colts. ESPN gives Indianapolis a 39% chance to make the divisional round, a 17% chance to make the AFC Conference Championship game, and a 6% chance to make their first Super Bowl appearance since 2010. As of right now, the Colts have the 12th-best odds in the league to win the Super Bowl (3%).
The Colts may have gotten off to a hot start, but the team can’t afford to be complacent. They have to continue to perform at a high level to turn their playoff dreams into reality. Based on ESPN’s Football Power Index, Indianapolis has a projected win total between seven and ten, with the eighth-easiest remaining strength of schedule.
If Jones can help the Colts reach the postseason, he will join rare company. Only three quarterbacks have led Indianapolis to the playoffs since 2000 — Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, and Philip Rivers. This season, Jones has an opportunity to turn around both his career and the trajectory of the franchise.