The worst-kept secret in the NFL is that the Philadelphia Eagles will be trading star wide receiver A.J. Brown. The second-worst secret is that they are trading him to the New England Patriots. That being the case, Brown would not seem to show up on the Indianapolis Colts' radar.
Not so fast. According to a recent Bleacher Report article by Kristopher Knox, the Colts are one of five dark horse candidates to land the three-time All-Pro. Knox points out that the Colts are not exactly in a rebuilding phase.
The quality they showed in the first half of last year and the win-now deal for Sauce Gardner at the trade deadline suggest general manager Chris Ballard is not looking very far down the road.
Does AJ Brown to the Indianapolis Colts make sense?
And given that his Colts teams have never so much as won an AFC South title in his nine-year tenure as GM, Ballard has to realize that he cannot wait. His job may well depend on a very successful 2026 season.
A.J. Brown could certainly help achieve that goal. At his best, he is an elite player at a premium position. His career success rate and yards-per-target stack up nicely against the best receivers in the league. We’re talking Ja’Marr Chase numbers. Justin Jefferson's numbers. His numbers took a dip in 2025, but at 28, that does not appear to be age-related.
And that’s the problem with this proposal.
Brown is elite, but he has not appeared happy in Philadelphia unless he is the clear WR1. His team has been winning, but he still appears frustrated.
That being the case, he really needs to go to a team where he will be the unquestioned alpha in the receiver room. That sounds an awful lot like the New England Patriots, doesn’t it?
Chris Ballard just re-signed Alec Pierce to a 100 million-plus deal. Alec Pierce is Indianapolis’ top receiver. He has earned that position. That deal forced the trade of the popular Michael Pittman, Jr. On paper, Brown – another very big, strong pass catcher – might look like an ideal Pittman replacement. He is not.
Brown is a very different player. He is better than Pittman. Far more dangerous on deep balls. Every team wants that kind of player, and with Pierce taking on a more traditional all-over-the-field route tree in 2026, the Colts would obviously like a deep threat.
But there simply aren’t enough targets to keep Brown happy in Indy. Not with Tyler Warren and Josh Downs also on board.
And there is not enough money.
It is very difficult in today’s NFL to have two veteran receivers on or near max contracts. The salary cap is simply untenable. Brown’s projected cap hit of 23 million is not necessarily a deal-breaker, though it would be tough. Pittman was traded entirely based on his similarly high cap hit.
But Brown, who is likely to hit free agency in 2027, will want a new deal. It is very hard to predict how that will affect his play in 2026, especially entering a new system. Sometimes, players thrive when a new deal is in the balance. And sometimes, escaping the brutal media world of Philadelphia can rejuvenate a player. Those things are possible.
Then again, the opposite could easily happen. Brown could simply check out, as he was accused of doing at times in Philly. It is just too big a gamble for Ballard to take.
And that does not even figure in the cost of acquisition. Ballard does not have a first-round draft pick in 2027. That was traded – along with the 2026 first-rounder – for Gardner. Howie Roseman is going to get a first-round pick for Brown. In his article, Knox noted that the Eagles’ GM may be willing to take a 2028 first-round pick as part of a deal.
Can Ballard really afford to spend three straight first-round picks on two players, especially when one of them is a bit of a gamble. That would be pure recklessness.
And don’t think that by postponing the first-round pick for a season, Roseman will not demand a bonus. He’ll get more draft capital in the 2027 draft, in addition, if he is willing to wait until 2028 for the first-round pick.
The Colts have a rebuilt defense this season. They have a QB coming off an Achilles tear. They also have a lot of talent, though the roster remains unbalanced. This has basically been the Chris Ballard legacy. A roster with peaks and valleys and little depth or breadth.
And it has consistently plateaued right in the middle of the league. Of course, A.J. Brown is a tantalizing prospect. But he is an enormous risk for a team that has too many other question marks.
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