If Indianapolis Colts fans squint hard enough, they can see a path to a 10-win season in the newly released NFL schedule.
After digesting the data from the league’s full schedule release on May 14, we’ve divided the Colts’ 2026 contests into seven categories and charted a path to a 10-win season.
- 0-1 record in “sure loss” games
- 0-1 record in “likely loss” games
- 1-2 record in tough home games
- 1-1 record in toss-up games away from home
- 1-1 record in games where the team with the healthiest QB will win
- 3-0 record in games against the weakest teams on the schedule
- 4-1 record in AFC South games outside of Jacksonville
It would add up to a 10-7 record and, hopefully, the team’s first playoff appearance since 2020. Optimistic? Yes. Realistic? Also … yes? Here’s how it could play out.
How the Indianapolis Colts' 2026 schedule shapes up
Sure loss - Week 8 at Jacksonville
The Colts haven’t won in Jacksonville since 2014. They’ve lost their last 10 trips by an average score of 31-16. We’re chalking this up as an “L” and moving on.
Likely loss – Week 4 at Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have the core of a team that has played in two of the last four Super Bowls, and the Colts have never won a game at Philadelphia’s Lincoln Financial Field. That probably won’t change this season.
Tough home games - Week 1 vs. Baltimore Ravens; Week 9 vs. Dallas; Week 16 vs. Cincinnati
The Colts would be decided underdogs on the road against all three of these teams. They should have a better chance in the familiar confines of Lucas Oil Stadium. If Indianapolis can delight the home fans by winning one of these games, that would be enough to stay on course for a 10-win season.
Chances for wins away from home – Week 4 vs. Washington and Week 5 at Pittsburgh
This is the reverse. The Colts probably would be favored at home against the Steelers or Commanders. They probably will be considered underdogs on the road at Pittsburgh and in London against Washington. A split of these trips would keep Indianapolis on pace for a 10-win season.
QB or not QB – Week 2 at Kansas City and Week 7 at Minnesota
If Patrick Mahomes isn’t fully recovered from his knee injury in the early season, the Colts absolutely can beat the Chiefs in Kansas City. If Mahomes is back to pre-injury form, probably not.
If Kyler Murray is a bust for the Vikings, the Colts absolutely can beat the Vikings in Minnesota. If Murray provides baseline-level QB play for a solid Vikings roster, probably not.
Of course, Indianapolis’ own quarterback situation is a question mark, with much hinging on Daniel Jones’ recovery from an Achilles tendon injury. If one of these two "healthiest QB wins" toss-ups results in an Indianapolis victory, that would keep the Colts on track for a 10-win season.
Must-wins – Week 10 vs. Miami; Week 12 vs. New York Giants, and Week 17 at Cleveland
These three teams combined for a 16-35 record last season and are the closest things to sure wins on the Indianapolis schedule. To reach 10 wins in 2026, the Colts need a sweep against these three teams with new coaches and unproven quarterback situations.
Division matchups – Week 3 vs. Houston; Week 6 vs. Tennessee; Week 11 at Houston; Week 15 at Tennessee, and Week 18 vs. Jacksonville
It’s not the only path, but we’re saying a winning record in division games is Indianapolis’ most sure path to 10 wins and a playoff spot. A 4-2 record or better in division games would not only boost the Colts’ victory total but likely would swing postseason tiebreaker scenarios in their favor.
We’re already chalking up the Jacksonville road game as a loss, so Indianapolis needs four wins in its five other AFC South games. A sweep of the home games and a win in Tennessee would do it.
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