NFL rosters changed quite a bit this offseason. Teams like the Las Vegas Raiders and Carolina Panthers radically remade themselves in the early moments of free agency in 2026. Other teams, without as much cap space, tweaked around the edges. Chris Ballard and the Indianapolis Colts more or less split the difference – making a couple of major moves, and a handful of minor ones.
How did they do in the first week of free agency? Pro Football Focus (subscription required) has come out with grades for each team. PFF maintains grades on every NFL player, and they use those evaluations to determine how effectively each team has spent its money thus far.
If PFF is correct in its ratings, then Ballard has done himself no real favors in the 2026 offseason. But there is one silver lining.
Indianapolis Colts grade in free agency a mixed bag
PFF awarded Indianapolis a C for its moves in the first week of free agency. A passing grade, at least.
But it’s also among the worst in the league. Only one team out of 32 received a lower grade than Indy. That was the Green Bay Packers, who got a D. The Packers have lost a ton of talent while adding very little in response. Oddly enough, the biggest move Green Bay has made so far has been to acquire Zaire Franklin in a trade with Indianapolis. PFF didn’t think much of the trade for either team.
With grade inflation, a B- was just about the median mark in these rankings. The Colts were one of six teams to receive a C.
Their grade appears to be mostly the result of PFF’s “below average” evaluation of the Daniel Jones extension. Though they admit no other outcome was likely, their grade grows out of the simple fact that Jones is far from a sure thing.
He looked good in the first half of 2025, but as anyone who watched Jones with the New York Giants knows, he has had other stretches like that, only to disappoint fans by his inability to sustain success.
Their analytics say that Jones is more likely to make a bad play than a good one. That has been mostly true throughout his career.
However, I think the “below average” evaluation may still be too harsh. The Daniel Jones of 2025 was a different player. He is finally with a coach who seems to understand how to get the most out of him. He finally has a quality offensive line and a group of talented receivers.
I suspect Jones will outperform his past over the next few seasons. And if he does not, at least Indy is only tied to him for two years. His 44 million dollars-per-year requires him to play like a top-10 QB to make economic sense, but unlike recent situations in Miami and Cleveland, should the player falter, Ballard can walk away without decimating his franchise.
After the Jones deal, PFF rated most of Ballard’s other moves as “average.” If Alec Pierce lives up to expectations, his contract will eventually be viewed as well above average. I have modest – but positive – hopes for Arden Key, who I think could revive his career under Lou Anarumo.
The fact is, Ballard simply hasn’t done this offseason very much. He achieved his two top priorities in re-signing both Jones and Pierce, but the cost meant that he had to be less aggressive in other areas. He was more or less forced into trading two of the club’s top players, Franklin and Michael Pittman, Jr., and he lost three other starters to other teams.
If Michael Clemons plays up to his potential, that could help. But I am not holding my breath. The Colts still have plenty of gaps to fill across the front seven of their defense.
Here’s the one silver lining in the PFF grades. Out of all the divisions in the NFL, the AFC South was clearly rated as the worst in terms of early offseason moves. Houston led the way with a B-. Tennessee received a C+ while Jacksonville joined Indy with a C.
Every other division had at least one team with a B. The three teams from the NFC West that made the playoffs last year got B-, B, and A (that was the LA Rams, the only full A in the PFF rankings).
Hollow comfort, perhaps. But it’s something. The Colts were a huge surprise early in 2025 and a massive disappointment late. They may have only received a C from PFF, but if Jones and Pierce replicate their early performances from last year, that won’t matter in the least. The Colts will be very competitive.
I admit I would like to be a little more confident about that actually happening.