The Indianapolis Colts return to Lucas Oil Stadium after a tough loss to the Los Angeles Rams. While the overall team played well, the Colts made some mistakes in key parts of the game, including having ten men on the field during the Tutu Atwell touchdown late in the 4th quarter. This week, the Colts' defensive line can set the tone for the rest of the team.
The Las Vegas Raiders' offensive line is one of the worst in the league right now, and the stats back this up. Ashton Jeanty has struggled in his first few games, but the story is a little deeper than he's just a bust. On 68 carries, Jeanty has 282 yards for a modest 4.1 yards per carry. However, if you take out his long run of 68 yards, his YPG drops below three.
The main issue here is the offensive line play. The Raiders' offensive line has played extremely poorly over the first 4 weeks of the season, forcing Jeanty to bounce around in the backfield before finding the hole. For comparison, Jonathan Taylor has 414 yards on 77 carries.
The Indianapolis Colts can shut down the run game with just the base four defenders
But the Next Gen Stats provide more context. Defenses are able to shut down the run against the Raiders with only base defense and without stacking the box.
Player | Percentage of 8+ Defenders in the box | Rushing yards over expected | Average time behind the line of scrimmage |
|---|---|---|---|
Taylor | 14.9% | 66 | 2.74 seconds |
Jeanty | 10.3% | 4 | 3 seconds |
The Colts defensive line is one of the strength of the defense and can set the tone for the game. Laiatu Latu has developed into a great pass rusher and run stuffer on the strong side.
DeForest Buckner is still the anchor for this defense at the 3 tech, Grover Stewart still remains one of the most underrated defensive players in the league, and Kwity Paye has been playing lights out on the backside run contain.
Forcing a quarterback like Geno Smith to play in a single dimension is a way to get him to make mistakes. Take the Eagles in the Super Bowl against the Chiefs earlier this year. They were able to get pressure on base four rushers, which allowed the secondary and linebackers to play less aggressively against the run.
Zaire Franklin is an excellent coverage linebacker, and having Nick Cross playing in the robber could cause some turnovers.
Some key matchups to watch are Bucker against Jackson Powers-Johnson at left guard and Laiatu Latu against Dylan Parham at right tackle. Getting Buckner and Latu on the same side and getting some stunts could cause some good pressure and force turnovers early in the game.
This will give the Colts offense the ball 2-3 more times in the game, and considering the Colts have scored on nearly every turnover this season, we can get Jonathan Taylor going against a defense with very weak linebackers.