The Indianapolis Colts' decision to go with Daniel Jones as the starter at quarterback over Anthony Richardson will change the offense. Richardson has a stronger arm and is more of a threat to run, but he is inaccurate, especially on shorter throws.
Jones is the safer pick. He won't turn the ball over, as he will not take many chances down the field. He will try to run his offense with ball security and longer drives. The issue is that he hasn't been consistently good at doing that for the first six years of his career.
Indianapolis has a good wide receiver group, and that should help whoever plays quarterback for the Colts. Michael Pittman is consistent and productive, Josh Downs is an improving slot receiver, but Alec Pierce might suffer because Jones is QB1.
Alec Pierce might suffer with Daniel Jones as the Indianapolis Colts starting quarterback
Through three seasons, Pierce has been extremely explosive but with limited touches. He has a career high of 41 catches, but that was in his first season. He had 37 in 2024, but had a career-high in touchdown receptions. It is often all or nothing for a receiver who has caught just 51.9 percent of his targets in his career.
With Jones behind center, Pierce might see the ball even less. Downs had a career-high 72 catches last year, but with Jones as quarterback, the slot receiver could see that number grow to 90. More targets for Downs likely means less for Pierce.
Pierce has had a very good training camp and appeared to be more effective on shorter throws. He has good hands, so his ability to catch the ball is not in question, but he might be the receiver he is at this point in his career. Once the bright lights come on and the real games begin, he might revert to his explosive play or bust trend.
Or, he could not. Daniel Jones might simply toss the ball to Pittman, Downs, and Adonai Mitchell, while Pierce comes up as the fourth option. Plus, does a less splashy Pierce mean that the offense is even more limited with Jones instead of Anthony Richardson? Touchdowns matter more than field goals.
Jones might get the Indianapolis Colts a lot of drives that end in three points. That isn't going to win games. Should Richardson have to replace Jones by Week 5 because of offensive inefficiency, Pierce's numbers should pick up, too. Until then, he is lost in the desert of targets.