The Indianapolis Colts boxed themselves in a bit this past offseason in the fact that the team almost had to bring back both quarterback Daniel Jones and wide receiver Alec Pierce. Had neither returned, the offseason would have been viewed as a failure.
Jones signed a two-year deal that could save him as much as $88 million. Pierce signed a four-year deal that could pay him as much as $116 million. Both might have been overpays, but Pierce's contract is the biggest gamble, and one that might hamstring the team for a while.
None of that is the player's fault, mind you. He has a short time to make generational wealth, and he has hopefully done that now. He's also a nice enough guy away from the field that fans will probably give him the benefit of the doubt if things start poorly. He didn't force the Colts to pay him so much; he simply took what was offered, as we all likely would have.
Indianapolis Colts' risky gamble with Alec Pierce must pay off
The risk is based on Indy believing that Pierce can go from arguably the most explosive receiver in the NFL to one who can be far more versatile. Last season, he began to run a few more crossing patterns, but his best plays were still the ones where he brilliantly boxed out defenders deep down the field. No one does that better.
To truly earn his money, however, he has to be more productive in terms of receptions, even if that means his average yards per catch is reduced. He should still get his flashy plays, but Pierce is now the true and unquestionable WR1 for the Colts. He's never had 50 catches in a season. In 2026 and beyond, he needs to have 80 or more.
Head coach Shane Steichen must scheme for Alec Pierce to scare opponents in more ways than post patterns. The receiver will need to have far more plays where he is more of a possession receiver, the way the now-traded Michael Pittman Jr. was.
Pierce has no Pittman to play off of, either. While Pittman was less and less explosive as the years went by, he still got the most targets of all receivers because he fit well in Steichen's offense. He could pick up the dirty first downs that we can't be sure that Pierce can do.
Pierce, who hasn't yet returned from offseason ankle surgery, though the player and team have somewhat downplayed the severity of the injury, could easily have 80 catches and 1,500 yards in 2026 and in years after. He could run a better route tree, one he hasn't been tasked with doing much yet.
But if Alec Pierce fails to make a massive leap in catches and, therefore, overall impact in any specific game, the team has no easy out. In the second year of the deal, he is guaranteed $30 million. Things ease by 2028, but by that point, the Indianapolis Colts might have just thrown a lot of money at a wide receiver who doesn't have the skill set to be as great as the team hoped.
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