Indianapolis Colts general manager took a flyer on Daniel Jones when he signed him to a one-year, $14 million contract. The veteran journeyman has proven to be a considerably better option than former first-round pick Anthony Richardson. And with a much better infrastructure than he ever had in New York, he is playing the best ball of his professional career.
Leveraging a 7-2 record, Ballard traded for Sauce Gardner at the trade deadline. The price of a premier cornerback entering the prime of his career was steep. Two first-round picks and a promising young receiver. Those first-round picks represented the team's next stab at a long-term option at quarterback. Unless that is...they are all-in on Jones.
Jones is set to be a free agent in 2026. But the Colts have multiple options to prevent that from becoming a reality. The problem is that Jones' status is one of many pending decisions the team has to work through.
Can Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones match Sam Darnold's contract?
Jonathan Taylor is in the midst of one of the best running back seasons in recent memory. With just one season left on his current deal. And on the heels of an off-season that saw Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry getting early extensions, he will certainly be pushing Colts' leadership for an extension that should pay him upwards of $20 million per year.
The Colts also have a talented trio of receivers, all making cases for new deals. Like Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr. will be entering the final year of his own deal. Pittman Jr. has led the Colts in receptions and receiving yardage since 2022. Alec Pierce is in the midst of the best season of his career - on pace for 53 catches and almost 1,100 yards.
He is set to hit free agency after this season. Josh Downs has been an extremely efficient receiver since entering the NFL, averaging almost 1.80 yards per route run since entering the league. But he has struggled to stay on the field consistently.
All of those decisions, to a certain degree, are dependent upon what the team does at quarterback. And with the Sauce trade, they have given away most of their alternatives to Jones. There is conjecture that Indianapolis has painted itself into a corner with Jones. But that's not really the case.
A potential contract
The most obvious course of action has the Colts following a path pioneered in recent seasons by the Seahawks with Geno Smith, the Bucs with Baker Mayfield, the Raiders with Smith, and the Seahawks again with Sam Darnold.
There is an emerging "middle class" of quarterback contracts developing in the NFL. These are characterized by shorter terms - often three years - and lower APYs as a percent of the salary cap in the year signed. Smith's original extension with Seattle in 2023 was for three years and 11.1% APY. His follow-up deal after getting traded to the Raiders was for two years at 13.4% of the cap.
Mayfield's 2024 extension was for three years at 13.1% of the cap, and Darnold followed that up the next year for three years himself at 12.0% of the cap. All of these deals pale in comparison to the four- and five-year extensions at the top of the market that are going for 19% APY or more.
At his current pace, my projections have Jones commanding $40 million per year on the higher side. That would be an extension of Smith's $37.5 million APY last year, accounting for cap inflation. On the lower end, there is a case for $34 million per year, putting him right in line with Mayfield and Darnold's current deals.
This would be a best-case scenario for the Colts, rewarding Jones for a solid season without putting too many eggs in his basket. The full guarantees of a deal in this range would require only a one-year commitment from Indy.
The franchise tag option
Alternatively, Jones could push for more than this range, say something similar to his 2023 extension with the Giants, which, when accounting for cap inflation, could be as much as $54 million per year. If he were to do that, the Colts would be wise to do what the Giants decided against in 2023. That year, New York decided against making Jones follow up his impressive 2022 campaign via the franchise tag.
The franchise tag is currently projected by Over the Cap at just over $46 million. Using it on Jones gives the Colts a one-year window to force him to prove that he can continue his current pace over a sample size greater than a single year. The downside is that the Colts have to account for all of that money at once on their salary cap. There is no deferment or restructuring.
As it stands right now, the Colts have over $52 million in projected cap space for 2026 (assuming a $300 million cap). Extensions for Pittman and Taylor could increase that number, as could other moves such as restructures for DeForest Buckner, Quenton Nelson, Charvarius Ward, and Grover Stewart. It is more than possible that the Colts can pull this off.
Best course of action
The Colts have a chance to take the road not taken two years ago for the Giants. After making winning a playoff game in 2022, Giants general manager Joe Schoen made an understandable, but grave mistake by making a multi-year commitment to Jones. Indianapolis can avoid making that same mistake.
Just a quick bifurcation of his season thus far shows that he may already be trending back to his career mean. Over the first five games of the season, he completed 71% of his passes, threw for 1,290 yards and six touchdowns to two interceptions with a net Big Time Throw - Turnover Worthy Play rate of (-0.4%). Since Week 6, those numbers have gone to: 69% completion rate, 1,369 yards, nine touchdowns to five interceptions with a net BTT-TWP rate of (-2.5%).
Waiting is the best option, as large sample sizes almost always trump small sample sizes. But Ballard's three main priorities when it comes to Jones this offseason have to be 1) limiting his fully guaranteed money to just 2026, 2) keeping his APY on a multi-year deal at $40 million or less, and 3) being willing to use the franchise tag as a last resort in lieu of yielding on either of the first two points.