You’d think that a team coming off two straight division titles and two straight trips to the divisional round in the playoffs would feel pretty good about themselves. Based on a couple of big moves they made this offseason, that doesn’t necessarily describe the situation with the Indianapolis Colts' toughest rival, the Houston Texans.
The Texans are once again the odds-on favorite to claim the title again this season. When DeMeco Ryans took over as head coach in 2023, Houston was coming off three straight double-digit loss seasons. The scandal surrounding star quarterback Deshaun Watson had plunged a team on the upswing into the lower depths of the NFL.
Ryans got things turned around quickly. Houston got out from under Watson and hit gold with C.J. Stroud in the draft. The former Ohio State star won Offensive Rookie of the Year honors and led the Texans back to the playoffs, where they won in the wild card round before being eliminated by Baltimore.
The Houston Texans are looking for their third straight AFC South title (and further sadden Indianapolis Colts fans)
They were supposed to take another step up the ladder in 2024. Instead, they took a step sideways.
Last season
The Texans finished with the same 10-7 record they had in 2023. Once again, they made it to the divisional round. This time, they gave eventual AFC champs Kansas City a good battle but eventually lost. Joe Mixon arrived to provide a strong option at running back while rising star Will Anderson hit double digits in sacks.
But there were problems. For instance, despite his gaudy sack total, Anderson’s total pressure stats declined.
What’s worse, on offense, Stroud took a step back. To be clear, every other team in the division would sell their grandmother to get hold of C.J. Stroud, but he did not take a step up in his second season. His touchdowns decreased. His interception rate more than doubled. His overall passer rating dipped. Maybe worst of all, he took 52 sacks on the season, up from 38 in his rookie year.
Part of the decline was due to terrible luck with injuries. When healthy, the Texans boasted one of the league’s most formidable trios of receivers in Nico Collins, Steffan Diggs, and Tank Dell. The problem was, all three were almost never healthy at the same time.
But Ryans and GM Nick Caserio were not content to blame it on bad luck. An embarrassing 31-2 loss to the Ravens in Week 17, in which they barely cracked 200 yards of total offense and suffered five sacks, convinced the powers that be that changes needed to be made.
This offseason
Those changes began when the Texans let go of offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik. A year before, Slowik was being talked about as a head coaching candidate. Now, the next candidate in the offensive-genius-of-the-moment contest – Nick Caley – takes his turn running the Texans’ offense.
Caley cut his professional coaching teeth under Bill Belichick in New England before doing his post-graduate work for Sean McVay in Los Angeles. He certainly has a pedigree. Can he get Stroud back to where he was in 2023? Can he make him even better?
Job one is shoring up the protection that surrendered those 52 sacks. To that end, Caserio made the seemingly odd choice to trade away Houston’s most decorated lineman, Laremy Tunsil, this offseason. They also parted ways with guard Kenyon Green, as well as veteran receivers Steffan Diggs and Robert Woods.
Caserio went after offensive firepower in the draft. With Tank Dell projected to be out for the entire season, Houston devoted two of their top three picks to wide receivers. Jayden Higgins brings size and speed to the outside while Jaylin Noel offers speed and power out of the slot.
Houston also grabbed a developmental tackle in Aireontae Ersery and a talented running back in Woody Marks. Ryans has already built an aggressive young defense, and the Texans sought to bolster their depth this offseason.
Will it work?
This season
No one knows when Joe Mixon will be back at full strength from his foot injury. If he misses time, it will certainly hurt Caley’s offense. The rookie Marks may get extended time early, or the Texans may turn to veteran Nick Chubb, who they signed as an insurance policy when the news of Mixon’s injury took a bad turn.
If Chubb has anything left, he could be a major addition. But Chubb missed almost all of 2023 and only looked like a shell of his former self in limited action last year.
The two rookies receivers join free agent pickup Christian Kirk as solid complements to rising superstar Nico Collins. The Texans should be fine at receiver. But will Stroud have time to throw?
With Tunsil gone, Houston will be relying on free agent Cam Robinson to guard his blind side. Robinson has the physical tools to excel, but he has never consistently performed in the NFL. His bookend at right tackle, Blake Fisher, is also talented but remains a work in progress.
Perhaps no coach is more crucial to the Texans' success in 2025 than Cole Popovich, who takes over as the offensive line coach after serving as an assistant for the past two seasons.
Of course, much of the success depends on a bounce-back year from Stroud. If the parts around him stay healthy and perform, he should do just that. But if the line falters again, or if Caley can’t overcome the likely extended absence of Mixon, Houston’s offense could struggle.
That won’t happen on defense. Ryans is one of the best defensive minds in the game, and he is building a formidable squad. Houston ranked near the top in almost every meaningful defensive category in 2024.
Anderson and Danielle Hunter from an excellent tandem on the edge. Derek Stingley Jr. is one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL, and the Texans have excellent depth behind him. Kamari Lassiter, Jalen Pitre, Calen Bullock, and free agent C.J. Gardner-Johnson could have formed one of the league’s best secondaries, with playmakers at both corner and safety.
However, Gardner-Johnson appears to have torn his Achilles in training camp. If so, he will miss the entire season.
The one area Ryans wanted to improve for 2025 was his run defense, and that remains an open question heading into the season.
Tommy Townsend remains a strong young punter, and veteran kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn converted 13 of his 16 attempts from beyond fifty yards last year. He struggled a bit on some shorter kicks, but he is still a formidable long-range bomber.
They will, however, be breaking in a new long snapper. After fifteen seasons in Houston, Jon Weeks signed with San Francisco. Since Weeks has been snapping on Texans’ punts and field goals longer than many of us have been alive, there is some fear that the Texans may simply vanish into the ether without him.
But I suspect DeMeco Ryans won’t permit that. If any of the other teams want to claim the AFC South title this year, they will have to go through the Texans.