The Indianapolis Colts’ playoff hopes took a near-fatal hit on Sunday after losing to the Denver Broncos. According to The New York Times, Indianapolis now has a 13% chance of making the postseason, while NFL.com gives them a 10% probability and ESPN’s odds are at 9%. While the Colts’ chances are definitely slim, there is still a path to the postseason. Unfortunately, Indianapolis no longer controls its own destiny.
With the loss in Denver, the Colts fell to 6-8 and can no longer win the AFC South title. That means their only option now is to qualify for the playoffs as a Wild Card team. Currently, Indianapolis still owns the 8th seed in the AFC playoff race, behind the 7th-seeded Chargers, who are in control of the final Wild Card spot. Leapfrogging Los Angeles is the Colts' best shot at sneaking into the postseason.
Indianapolis needs some help to catch up to the Chargers
As it stands, the Colts (6-8) are two games behind the Chargers (8-6), so they need a couple of things to happen. First, Indianapolis has the win out. Second, Los Angeles has to lose two of their last three games. If both happen, the two teams would each finish 9-8 and the Colts would advance thanks to their conference record advantage. But, is this realistic or just a pipe dream?
Indianapolis certainly has an opportunity to win all of their remaining games given their very easy schedule — they play the Titans, Giants, and Jaguars. On the other hand, the Chargers will also face some weak competition. Los Angeles’ toughest test left is a home game versus the Broncos this Thursday, but they end the year on the road against the 3-win Patriots and 2-win Raiders. In other words, Indianapolis needs at least one tanking team to pull off an upset.
Two other teams to watch are Cincinnati and Miami, who are currently tied with the Colts at 6-8. Neither the Bengals nor the Dolphins should be a problem, assuming Indianapolis finishes with a 9-8 record, as the Colts possess a better conference record than Cincinnati and the head-to-head tiebreaker over Miami. Incredibly, Indianapolis can lose one more game and still make the playoffs. In that scenario, the Chargers would have to go 0-3, and Cincinnati and Miami would have to lose at least once more.
Staying on the topic of wild hypothetical situations, there’s a remote chance the Colts can jump not only the Chargers but also the Broncos and Ravens, and clinch the AFC’s 5th seed. If Indianapolis wins out, Baltimore and Denver lose out and Los Angeles goes 1-2 (that one win being against Denver), all four teams will end up tied at 9-8. Due to the NFL’s wacky rules, only one team per division can be considered in playoff tiebreakers between three or more teams. That stipulation would eliminate the Broncos — crucially negating their head-to-head win over Indianapolis — in favor of the Chargers because of their two intradivisional wins against Denver. Finally, the Colts would have the edge over both Los Angeles and Baltimore based on their theoretically superior conference record of 7-5. Of course, all of these options are extremely unlikely, but anything is possible, right?