After a soul-crushing loss like the one suffered by the Indianapolis Colts against the Tennessee Titans in Week 6, some fans drink. I crunch numbers. See, I had this theory, and I wanted to see if the data supported it. Turns out, it does. The Indianapolis Colts are a truly awful second-half team.
This has been a problem for much of Chris Ballard’s tenure as general manager, and if anything, it has gotten worse under Shane Steichen’s stint as head coach. As of Monday morning, Ballard is out of a job, and there is no word yet as to Steichen's future. As for me, I attribute the second-half misery to both personnel decisions (Ballard) and to coaching (Steichen).
2025 marked the second time in the span of four seasons that saw the Colts close out with a seven-game losing streak. That in and of itself is a remarkably dubious achievement.
Second-half collapses are a problem that simply will not go away for the Indianapolis Colts
But the problem runs a lot deeper than that. They are not merely bad in the second half of the season. They are bad in the second half of games. We’ll discuss possible reasons for this in a moment, but first, let’s examine some numbers.
The Colts have now played 57 games under Shane Steichen. Though they are a mediocre 27-30 in those games, they are 20-31-6 in the second half of those games. That means they are being outscored in the second half of more than 60% of the games they have played under Steichen.
There may be the occasional anomaly – a game in which Indy establishes a huge first-half lead and then coasts to an easy win in the second stanza. But over a 57-game span, those numbers are untenable. It was on full display against Tennessee. Steichen's squad did, in fact, build up a solid 13-point lead by halftime. Then they collapsed, losing the second half 26-7.
I wanted to see if that was, in fact, the biggest collapse the team has suffered in Steichen’s three-plus years in charge. It is not. In his first season, they were outscored 20-0 by the Bengals. The next year, Denver massacred the Colts 24-0 in the second half of a Week 15 contest.
But you could easily make the case that Sunday against the Titans was worse. Both of those earlier games were on the road against teams that would end the season with winning records. Denver was a playoff team, and the Bengals just missed the playoffs.
Sunday’s loss came at home against a previously winless team. I am not a gambling man, but I will take any action you care to take on the Titans, whether it's making the playoffs or finishing this year with a winning record. This was an embarrassment.
Under Steichen, the Colts have been outscored 725-628 in the second half of games. They have been outscored 425-364 in the fourth quarter. Those numbers aren’t huge, but they are disturbingly consistent. The Colts, under Steichen, lose the second half far more often than they win it.
Why?
I think blame falls on both the coach and the GM. As I said, this problem existed prior to Steichen’s arrival. But it has gotten marginally worse since he took over in 2023.
Steichen tends to start games well. He does not end them well. One seemingly logical conclusion is that when he has time to prepare – to script out his offensive attack – his teams perform quite well. However, in the heat of battle, when conditions are fluid and adjustments must be made, he falters. His teams rarely come out of halftime looking better than they did when the game began.
But since this problem existed prior to his arrival, I think Ballard has to share the blame. I have long maintained that were you to peel off the top ten percent of the Colts roster, they could stand up to most teams in the league. Ballard has gotten stars like Jonathan Taylor, Quenton Nelson, DeForest Buckner, Sauce Gardner, and now, perhaps Spencer Shrader.
But when you look at the bottom half of the roster, the Colts are not a competitive team. That tends to show up in the second half – of individual games and of seasons – when depth becomes a key factor. It can show up on special teams, where a lot of those bottom-half players are on the field. The Colts lost to Tennessee in large part because of major blunders on punts.
It would be silly to suggest that neither Steichen nor Ballard knows what they are doing. Both have shown ability in several areas. Unfortunately, we have a pretty good track record to go on now, and both have failed in two vital areas.
Steichen has not shown the ability to make in-game adjustments to maximize his talent, and Ballard has failed to build a deep, resilient roster that can sustain success week in and week out. Now Ballard is gone, and someone new will be in charge of assembling talent for the club.
Unfortunately, that seems to be a necessary decision. The Titans' debacle is merely the latest in a pattern of second-half futility that neither coach nor GM has an answer for.
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