They are not mathematically eliminated, but any marginal hopes the Indianapolis Colts had of making the playoffs in 2025 evaporated on Monday night against a very good San Francisco 49ers team. It’s probably for the best. It was clear in Week 16 that the current, badly wounded version of Indianapolis has no business sharing the field with the league’s best.
So now the postmortem can begin. And the planning for the future. There are far more questions than answers at this point, but Colts’ fans should remember that this team was as good as anyone in the league during the first half of the season, and though that may have been partly due to a weak schedule, they nonetheless have a lot of very good pieces.
Will Chris Ballard and Sean Steichen be the ones calling the shots this offseason? Less than two months ago, Ballard was a serious contender for executive of the year. Now, the fact that he has a losing record in nine seasons as GM and hasn’t advanced to the playoffs since 2020 has put his job in serious jeopardy.
Steichen’s fate is equally precarious. We’ll have more on those topics down the road. Today, let’s talk about the Colts’ impending free agents. Or, more to the point, one particular free agent.
What should the Indianapolis Colts do about the quarterback position?
Whether it’s Chris Ballard or someone new, there are a lot of complicated decisions facing the franchise this offseason. At the top of the list is Daniel Jones.
Jones’ injury couldn’t have been more poorly timed, for both the team and for the player. The QB was playing on a one-year $14 million contract and was in line for a major long-term renewal, probably with the Colts. A late-season Achilles doesn’t merely end Jones' current campaign. It calls 2026 into major doubt.
Medical advances have enabled some players to return to play more quickly, but this typically requires a full year of recovery. It is often even longer before the player gets back to where he was pre-injury. That means Daniel Jones cannot be counted on – by the Colts or anyone else – to be a meaningful contributor in 2026.
Perversely, that may make it easier for Indy to re-sign him, but that is of little consequence. If he cannot play, the Colts need another quarterback for next year. It would have been nice to give Anthony Richardson a shot at saving the season, but that wasn’t in the cards either.
Is there a realistic scenario in which Indianapolis enters the 2026 season with either Richardson or Riley Leonard as their starter? Difficult to imagine.
They don’t have the draft capital to go after a blue-chip prospect in the draft, which means they are probably back in the uncomfortable position of scouring the wires for a veteran castoff looking for another shot.
That’s really all Jones was last year, so this type of move could pay dividends. But there is no Tom Brady or Matthew Stafford on the market right now. The QBs who may find themselves as free agents this offseason include the likes of Kirk Cousins and Tua Tagovailoa.
More attractive options like Mac Jones or Kyler Murray could be available via trade, but given Indy’s limited draft resources, they seem unlikely.
The best fit amongst current projected UFAs is Washington’s Marcus Mariota, who has performed well filling in for Jayden Daniels this year. He would probably do well with a coach like Steichen.
Ballard, or whoever succeeds him, is probably looking at yet another short-term deal for a veteran and perhaps a corresponding short-term deal for Jones. There’s certainly a chance that could work out pretty well.
Then again, maybe not.
This team has a lot of work to do on defense, but having a healthy Sauce Gardner and Justin Walley will provide a major upgrade. They do not have a lot of draft capital, but they should be in good salary cap shape and may go after some pass-rushing help.
Apart from quarterback, they have a very good core of young offensive players. There are several pending free agents besides Daniel Jones, who we will be discussing in the coming days. But the first cornerstone decision will involve the most important position.
The Colts cannot simply write off 2026 before the season even starts. Nor can they take an ill-advised gamble on a questionable veteran, sacrificing salary cap space or draft picks in the process. That, in QB terms, creates an awfully tight window for a completion.
If I’m the one calling the shots, I enquire what John Lynch would want for Mac Jones, and get on the phone with Mariota’s agent. Then I have a serious talk with Daniel Jones, explaining that he is still very much a part of Indy's future, but the injury makes it unrealistic to work out a long-term deal at this point. Kick the can down the road for another season. Then I turn my attention to my other pending free agents.