An ugly truth about the Indianapolis Colts is that, even when they have a serviceable enough team, they have struggled to make it beyond the regular season in recent years. The Colts haven't made the playoffs since 2020, and even worse, haven't won their division - the AFC South - since 2014.
Yikes.
Thankfully, though, there are some good reasons to believe the Colts could still have a good showing in 2025. After all, many of the Colts' losses were by one score or less, so it's not as if Indianapolis was repeatedly getting destroyed game after game.
The assumed leader of the division for 2025 is the Houston Texans, but it's not a given by any means. There are a lot of problems with their offensive line - it literally was rated the worst in the league - and while CJ Stroud is definitely an improvement over, say, Anthony Richardson, he's begun having struggles of his own. Stroud needs to have a huge rebound season after his disappointing performance in 2024 for the Texans to continue to claim their place on top of the AFC South. All that is to say that, while the Texans may have a slight edge, they're by no means a guaranteed lock to take the division again.
How the Colts can win the AFC South
Writing for CBS Sports, Garrett Podell examined each team's odds of winning the division, and what they need to do to get there. For the Colts, the answer is simple: rely on Jonathan Taylor, and the (hopefully) much-improved defense.
"The Colts could make a run at the division title by simply riding Taylor and a much-improved defense.Garrett Podell
General manager Chris Ballard beefed up Indianapolis' secondary with the free agency additions of cornerback Charvarius Ward (ninth-lowest completion percentage allowed (53%) across the last three seasons) and safety Camryn Bynum (one of four players with 300 or more tackles and seven or more interceptions across the last three season). The hire of longtime Cincinnati Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, who oversaw solid Bengals defenses that helped Cincinnati make deep playoff runs for much of his tenure, should pay dividends. Simply getting turnover-free, consistent play from either Richardson or Jones could be enough for the Colts to break through from second to first in 2025. "
There's no denying that Jonathan Taylor is one of the best running backs in the league. And Podell is absolutely right that, for the Colts offense to succeed, they need to remember the Colts' motto and run the damn ball. Taylor is an explosive playmaker who, with the addition of Khalil Herbert and DJ Giddens, will is already a rumored candidate for 2025's Offensive Player of the Year.
So, yes - the Colts need to rely on Jonathan Taylor. But that very well could come at a major cost. The only thing keeping Taylor from putting up numbers on par with Saquon Barkley is his inability to remain healthy. Taylor has put up insane numbers each year, even with injuries preventing him from playing the entire season. Part of it has been out of necessity; there has not been a reliable running back to take the load off of Taylor in recent years. Hopefully, Herbert and Giddens will be able to provide that support, but the heavy workload Taylor has been under has taken a toll. Keeping up that kind of workload would potentially put Taylor at risk for more injuries, and even shorten his overall career.
The question, then, becomes this: if riding Taylor throughout the entire regular season, and potentially causing even more injury, would it be worth it for just a division title?