A few weeks ago, before the Indianapolis Colts began training camp, we speculated on what slot receiver Josh Downs would have to do to continue his climb toward the upper echelon of NFL pass catchers.
At that time, we noted the surprisingly poor yards-after-catch numbers he had posted. For such a gifted and elusive athlete, generating bigger gains after making short middle-of-the-field catches is a reasonable expectation.
Now that we have had about a week's worth of actual practices, Josh Downs’ areas of potential growth have expanded. This is largely due to the ongoing absence of projected X receiver Alec Pierce, who is continuing to heal from ankle surgery in March.
The Indianapolis Colts must increase Josh Downs’ workload until other receivers step up
But Pierce’s absence only draws attention to a stark reality. The Colts do not have an obvious replacement for Michael Pittman. It is still early, and any one of a number of wannabes could step forward, but right now, no one is inspiring tremendous confidence. And that increases the pressure on Downs, the only Colts receiver currently practicing who produced in 2025.
As he enters his fourth season, the UNC product has established himself as one of the league’s better slot receivers. He is a pending free agent in 2027, and Downs surely wants to have a big year and earn a major raise from his rookie deal. To do that, he probably has to move out of the slot … at least partly.
In 2025, Josh Downs lined up in a slot position on about 80% of his offensive snaps. The other 20% found him lined up outside. Can he move outside more often and still make plays? If he can, his value goes up, and he also becomes a much bigger part of the Colts’ offense.
Pierce’s absence in the early part of training camp affords him that chance. Though veterans Ashton Dulin and Laquon Treadwell have been seeing more time outside, the main early beneficiary of Pierce being sidelined figures to be rookie Deion Burks.
Free agent Nick Westbrook-Ikhine could also see snaps at the X, though he seems better suited to assume the Z receiver role that Pierce played earlier in his career.
It is not all that reasonable to expect any of those players to shock the world. The rookie Burks is the biggest unknown, and maybe he can develop, but an undersized, seventh-round draft pick is not likely to post big numbers in his rookie season. There has even been speculation that Burks may not make the final roster.
Downs is the player with untapped potential. And increasing his production would not require a complete overhaul of his job description.
Josh Downs can, and probably should, play mostly in the slot. But that 80/20 split between slot and perimeter could change. Detroit’s Amon-Ra St. Brown, arguably the best slot receiver in the league, has a split closer to 60/40.
Despite lining up outside at almost twice the rate of Downs, the two receivers still had identical depth-of-target numbers. That means that, on average, they were running routes of similar depth, but St. Brown had a wider variety in his route tree.
St. Brown also doubled Downs’ yards-after-catch average. Is that simply because St. Brown is a better runner with the ball in his hands than Downs? If you watched them in college, you wouldn’t have thought that to be true. A more likely answer is that Downs, with his more limited route tree, has been easier for opposing secondaries to defend.
In practical terms, St, Brown generates more positive plays – touchdowns and first downs – with his receptions. He catches far more balls than Downs, so it’s not surprising his raw numbers are much better. But his success rate is also better.
It is not better by a lot – just a few percentage points. But that is the difference between a good player and a Pro Bowler. It can be the difference between winning and losing games.
Josh Downs is already good. He could be better. It’s time for the Colts to free him up and see what he can do. There’s no Alec Pierce, at least for a little while. There’s no Michael Pittman for the entire season. Downs is the best receiver the Colts have currently practicing. They need to start using him as such.
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