Just a month ago, the Indianapolis Colts were the Cinderella of the NFL. In the past few weeks, that glass slipper has proven to be a very poor fit. If they lose to the 49ers, we can consider it as good as shattered. And those glass slivers will be very painful indeed.
After their thrilling overtime win in Week 10 over the Falcons, the Colts were the team flying high. At 8-2, they owned the number-one seed in the AFC by virtue of their last-second win over the Broncos. We all remember how the game turned on a penalty against Denver for Indianapolis to eke out that win, right?
Good thing it happened, too, because after they bye, the Colts fell apart. Okay, so that's an exaggeration. Yes, they've lost four straight games, and that's been tough to watch. But except for a 17-point blowout defeat at the hands (paws?) of the Jaguars, the horseshoe-helmeted guys were in every game. They lost the other three contests by a total of nine points. So was it bad luck?
The Indianapolis Colts need to defeat the 49ers or it's just about over
Well, those losses weren't good luck, that's for sure. But the fact is that Indianapolis has a terrible record against good teams this year. As we pointed out after the brutal loss to the Chiefs in Week 12, Indianapolis was only 2-3 when facing teams above .500. Heading into Monday Night Football, they're 2-6. That doesn't bode well, considering they're facing the 10-4 49ers.
If the Colts win, they still have to beat both the Jaguars in Week 17 and then the Texans in the season finale on the road. Both of those wins will be difficult enough, but they likely wouldn't matter if they can't pull off the win versus the Niners. A lot of good things have to happen for this win. Jonathan Taylor and the defense both need to play lights out, among others.
Due to the miracle of modern science, the Athletic has a very fancy playoff scenario simulator(subscription required). With the results of every other Week 16 game in, except the Patriots-Ravens contest, the odds for the Colts' playoffs take a huge swing pending their win.
The short version: an Indy win gives them an 86 percent chance to make the postseason. Remember, that's including them winning out as well. If they lose on MNF, well... those odds drop to just 13 percent.
Why such a huge swing? The easiest part of the explanation is that the best record the Colts could achieve would be 10-7. Their division rivals' wins on Sunday gave Jacksonville win number 11 and Houston win number 10. Obviously, Indianapolis can no longer win the division, no matter what happens. The wins by the Chargers and the Steelers really hurt the Colts' shot at a wild card as well.
But things get a bit more interesting when you play around with numbers. Again, the Colts have to win out for their best chance. But let's assume the Colts beat the Niners and then beat the Jags in Week 17. Still no chance to catch Jacksonville, right?
But if Houston drops their Week 17 tilt against the Chargers, Indy's playoff chances jump from 13 percent to 27 percent. Still lousy, sure, but if the Texans win that game, the Colts' chances drop to virtually zero.
It's all due to the NFL's wonderful and arcane playoff tie-breaker rules, which at one point depend on the relative ages of the special teams coordinators' youngest cousins. I'm pretty sure that's right. Anyway, jump to The Athletic if you're a subscriber, and have fun. Odds are, it will be more fun than watching the rest of this season.