In its current configuration, the AFC South has been around for 24 seasons. In all that time, the Indianapolis Colts have finished in the cellar just once. It’s a remarkable accomplishment. However, if a recent analysis by NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks proves accurate, this record may not stay intact for long.
Brooks, who served as an NFL scout for ten years after his playing career ended, recently identified a group of players whom he designated as part of his “breakout team” for 2026. 22 players in all – eleven each on offense and defense.
Four of them came from the Tennessee Titans. It was the most of any team. Just three other clubs – the Giants, 49ers, and Patriots – had two players. The Colts had zero.
Indianapolis Colts need to hold off a rejuvenated Tennessee Titans squad to avoid catastrophe in 2026
Why does this matter to Indianapolis? Because Tennessee has finished at the bottom of the division each of the last three seasons. If they are moving up based on young, breakout talent, then someone is falling. And some pretty powerful trend lines suggest the team to fall will be the Colts.
In the first thirteen years of the AFC South, Indianapolis was the bully on the block. They won nine titles. That still stands as the most among the four franchises. However, since 2015, it has been one disappointment after another. Every other divisional team has won at least two titles. The Colts have not claimed a single crown.
Let’s just focus on the last nine years under the general managership of Chris Ballard. (WARNING: there is some math in the following paragraph. If you wish to avoid it, just skip a few paragraphs ahead.)
Indy has not won a division title under Ballard’s leadership. They have also never finished in last place. Four seconds. Five thirds. While Houston, Jacksonville and Tennessee have all improved on their average division finish since 2917, the Colts have regressed by a fairly wide margin.
Though it might be tempting to blame this regression on the sudden retirement of Andrew Luck, it is worth remembering that the Texans suffered an equally devastating setback at quarterback with all the drama surrounding Deshaun Watson in 2021. Houston, with smart drafting and coaching, has claimed two of the last three AFC South crowns.
Houston has a sensational defense and remains a force. Jacksonville is the defending champ and seems to finally have a coach who can get something out of Trevor Lawrence. Tennessee has been the team that saved the Colts from the cellar in two of the last three seasons. That is why Bucky Brooks’ latest analysis is so troubling.
The Titans’ Cam Ward is Brooks’ choice as “breakout” quarterback for 2026. Ward certainly struggled with inexperience and with mediocre supporting talent in his rookie season. He was the league’s most sacked QB. But most scouts praise his attitude and work ethic. If he exhibits a typical growth spurt in his second season, Tennessee should be a lot better regardless of what else happens.
Brooks has also labelled the Titans tight end Gunnar Helm as a potential star. Helm developed good chemistry with Ward last year, catching 80% of his targets. He is unlikely to challenge the league’s best, but Helm showed in 2025 that he could be a very good intermediate route runner with reliable hands.
As Tennessee attempts to surround Ward with better receiving options like rookie Carnell Tate and slot Wan’Dale Robinson, having Helm as a known entity could really pay dividends for Ward.
Over on defense, where new coach Robert Saleh is likely to have an outsized impact, Brooks pegged linebacker Cedric Gray and safety Kevin Winston Jr as similar breakout candidates. Tennessee gave up the fifth-most points per game in 2025. If Saleh can help them make even modest improvements, that could result in a few more wins.
The Colts are counting on a big return from Daniel Jones. They have a lot of talent on offense and a lot of new blood on defense. If things go right, they could be contending for the title, as they were through most of last season. “Breakout” candidates are nice, but they are rarely as good as known stars. For instance, though Brooks tabs Gunnar Helm at tight end, I’d still rather have Tyler Warren.
But if things don’t go right – if the thin Colts roster suffers an injury to a key playmaker on offense, or if it takes a while for the radically rebuilt defense to come together, Indianapolis could find itself in a place it hasn’t been since 2011, the tumultuous season in which Peyton Manning remained sidelined and the team managed just two wins.
Then again, that disaster did result in Andrew Luck the following year, so perhaps there would be a silver lining. However it plays out, it appears that the Colts won’t be able to rely on the Titans – or Houston or Jacksonville – to fold this season. If they are to avoid the cellar, Indy will have to earn their success.
Add us as a preferred source on Google