There are a lot of ways to describe how the Indianapolis Colts’ offense, which had been so dominant in the first part of the season, imploded at the end of Week 12's game with the Kansas City Chiefs.
Shane Steichen and Jim Bob Cooter are no doubt already analyzing tape to try and find some answers. We’ll do a bit of that as well, but I want to begin today by talking about a game that happened two weeks ago and didn’t involve the Colts at all.
In Week 9, Kansas City went into Buffalo and lost 28-21. The fact that the game was played in Buffalo matters, and we’ll get to that. But the most important thing to know about that game is that the Bills were able to establish an early lead and then hold onto the ball by balancing running and passing as they typically do.
Who is to blame for the Colts’ offensive meltdown versus the Chiefs?
Buffalo ran 35 times while Josh Allen threw just 26 passes. Because of few of those runs were actually scrambles by Allen, the play calling hovered near 50/50, which is exactly where Buffalo has been throughout the 2025 season. They ended with an eight-minute time-of-possession cushion and won 28-21.
The reason this matters to Colts' fans is that this is precisely what Shane Steichen and Indianapolis failed to do in their overtime loss to the Chiefs. Steichen called pass plays on 31 of Indy’s 50 plays (49 if you rule out the end-of-half kneel-down). That means Indianapolis ran on just 38% of its plays. They entered the game running on 46% of their plays.
Game script can affect that run-pass balance for a team. You may be a run-heavy offense, but if you fall behind by a big enough margin, you are forced to throw more. That is not what happened to the Colts. They carried a double-digit lead into the fourth quarter of the game.
Even though the Chiefs were behind most of the game, Chiefs' running back Kareem Hunt still out-carried the Colts’ MVP candidate, Jonathan Taylor, 30-16. The mere fact that Hunt out-carried a healthy Taylor is odd enough. Throw in a game script that had the Colts leading, and it becomes entirely inexplicable.
If Hunt were running roughshod while Taylor was being stuffed, perhaps that would make sense. But Taylor’s yards-per-carry (3.6) was actually higher than Hunt’s (3.5). For the game, Indianapolis managed a 3.9 yards-per-carry, which is not very good based on what they have achieved in other games. Still, it was merely one-tenth behind what Buffalo did against the Chiefs a few weeks ago.
The difference is that Buffalo in Week 9 and Kansas City on Sunday both put faith in their running games despite some struggles. Steichen took the ball away from Taylor and his offensive line and turned the game over to Daniel Jones.
Think of that for a moment. Bills' OC Joe Brady and Kansas City’s Andy Reid have Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes playing quarterback, and still, they ran the ball consistently. Steichen has Daniel Jones, and he threw the ball.
Someone has some explaining to do.
The upshot, as Indy fans know all too well, is that in the fourth quarter and overtime, the Colts had four consecutive three-and-out drives. On those twelve plays, Steichen called nine passes and just three runs. Unfortunately, Jones was not good when it mattered. At least three of his throws were off target. Any one of them could have changed the eventual outcome.
There are reasons why this happened. Indy has a very good passing game this season, built on its run game. In the first half, play-action passes worked beautifully for the Colts. But when they stopped running, the play action stopped working as well.
Remember that note about where the Chiefs-Bills game was played? It is always very hard for opponents to win in Kansas City. For my money, it is the loudest open-air stadium in the league. The Colts’ line, which has often been dominant, was consistently beaten by an aggressive Chiefs front. Taylor was stuffed on several crucial plays as a result.
But that is no reason to abandon the run. What it requires is some additional inventiveness. More misdirection. More draws and screens. The Colts were in 12 and 13 personnel for much of the game, and by the time the fourth quarter rolled around, Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo seemed to have figured out what Steichen wanted to do. Perhaps some runs out of a four-wide spread would have broken for Taylor. It was worth a try.
At the start of the second half, television color commentator Tony Romo made one of the most telling comments of the day: “All the cool plays are gone. Daniel Jones, it’s gonna be up to you.”
He was referring to the creative game plan that Steichen and Cooter began the game with, and which built an early lead. Romo turned out to be prophetic. Jones faltered in the end, and the Colts lost.
But maybe the follow-up to Romo’s insightful comment should be this:
Why did Shane Steichen enter this game with just one-half’s worth of “cool plays?” And why did he spend them all early on? He needed to find ways to maintain faith in a running game that has been so good this year, but which was tossed aside because they finally faced an opponent who put up some resistance.
With vital games against teams with elite defenses like Houston and Seattle looming, Steichen needs to find ways to trust his running game very soon.