Compared with most teams in the NFL, the Indianapolis Colts have been relatively healthy this season. Sure, there have been injuries. Defensive backs began going down in the preseason when rookies Justin Walley and Hunter Wohler were lost for the year. That trend has continued through last Sunday’s showdown with Houston, when newly-acquired Sauce Gardner had to leave early.
Apart from that position group, losing defensive tackle DeForest Buckner may turn out to be the most costly loss. His absence as both a pass rusher and run stopper is being felt in the middle of the line.
But if the Colts don’t take steps to fortify their kicker position, it may turn out that Spencer Shrader’s loss will end up looming largest. In two of Indy’s last three games, his replacement, veteran Michael Badgley, has missed kicks that had a significant impact on the game. In one case, against Atlanta, the Colts dodged the bullet and got an overtime win.
In the other, against Houston, Badgley's miscue affected the way the game ended. The Colts lost 20-16 and fell out of first place in the AFC South for the first time this season.
Colts need to fix their kicking inconsistencies or risk the results
Badgley certainly has not been terrible. He has converted ten of his eleven field goal attempts, only missing from 53 yards against Atlanta. His 91% success rate on field goals is a full six points higher than the league average.
And though his miss against the Falcons was partially responsible for Indy failing to win in regulation, he redeemed himself with a clutch kick at the end of the fourth quarter to extend the game.
The problem, for some reason, has come with extra points. Through seven games in relief of Shrader, Badgley has missed three. The result is that his extra point percentage is almost ten points below the league average.
The most costly miss came against Houston. It came early on, but the missing point meant that the Colts were not in position to tie the game with a late field goal, as they had done versus the Falcons. They were down by four points instead of three and needed a touchdown.
What has been particularly confounding about Badgley’s performance is that all of his misses have come early in the game. All of his missed PATs came after Indy’s first touchdown, and his missed field goal came early in the second quarter. He seems to settle down as the game goes on, but by that point, it may be too late.
Badgley burst onto the scene as a rookie with the Chargers in 2018. He hit on 94% of his field goals, including a career long of 59. He converted 96% of his PATs. He never equaled that field goal percentage again and in recent years, he has been missing more and more extra points as well.
Though he did hit from 53 yards this year, he also came up short from the same distance against the Falcons. For his career, he has made 83% of his field goal attempts, and is well under 50% from 50 yards and above.
As a point of comparison, Houston’s Kaimi Fairbairn, a solid kicker but hardly elite, has made more than 87% of his kicks and almost 75% of the attempts from outside 50 yards.
Badgely is not a great long-range kicker. That’s not so bad, provided he is making everything from inside 45 yards. As his recent problems with extra points show, that is not the case.
Is it time to make a switch? Taking a chance on an untested rookie might be too big a leap for a team in the thick of a playoff race. But there are veterans out there who might provide an upgrade. Matthew Wright has been bouncing around the league for five years now. He performs well wherever he goes, but is usually released when the team’s regular kicker recovers from injury.
Wright has converted better than 88% of his field goals and has not missed a PAT since 2021. He has made 64% of his long-range kicks with a career-best of 59 yards.
Switching kickers at this point is not a no-brainer. There is no guarantee that Wright, or anyone else, would perform better than Badgley. And with kickoffs playing a much bigger role in game scripts this year, the ability to hit the landing area with a knuckle ball is almost as valuable as making a field goal.
Still, Badgley’s misses are becoming very concerning. Last Sunday was the first game in which his miss may have cost the Colts the win. If it happens again against a division rival like Houston or Jacksonville, a simple missed kick could have disastrous results.