Heading into their Week 11 bye, the Indianapolis Colts had an 8-2 record, tied for the best in the league. Their offense was a juggernaut. The lowest yardage total Shane Steichen’s crew had managed was 317 in a Week 5 win over Las Vegas. They had topped 400 yards in half of their games.
The Colts have not cracked 300 total yards in either of their two games since returning from the bye. The 536 yards they have combined in two post-bye losses are barely more than what they achieved against Atlanta in Week 10.
What has happened to this record-setting offense? There are probably several interrelated explanations, but one thing seems as obvious as it is inexplicable. The Colts have stopped running the ball.
Indianapolis Colts' recent slide coincides with a failure to run
Steichen’s offense has run for fewer than 100 yards in five of its 12 games this year. Two of them were the last two losses. For the season, they are 1-4 when they fail to gain at least 100 yards. (They are 0-4 when they fail to gain at least 96 yards.)
Many times, a team’s rushing total is a function of game script. Fall behind early, and you may have to throw more. Some of Indy’s big rushing totals came after they established big early leads and then leaned heavily on Jonathan Taylor and the offensive line.
But the game script only explains one of the Colts’ losses this year. They did fall behind Pittsburgh and felt compelled to throw more. The other games were competitive throughout. In each, Steichen appeared to determine early on that the running game was not producing and that his best chance came from putting the ball in Daniel Jones’ hands.
There are two broad answers to why this has happened. The first is that Indianapolis was fortunate to face a lot of weak defenses early, and they took full advantage. In their two post-bye losses, they took on top-ten defenses, both overall and against the run. Through the first ten weeks, they only faced one top-ten defense – Denver in Week 2.
So perhaps the Colts’ great success was simply an illusion. Perhaps they were feasting on lesser opponents. They have lost three of their last four games, and their rushing production has plummeted. In the losses to Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and Houston, they have averaged just 20 runs per game for under 70 yards. That works out to a 3.5 yards-per-carry.
For context, Indianapolis was not under 3.5 yards per carry in any other game this season. They only ran the ball fewer than 20 times in one game – a Week 8 blowout of Tennessee in which Jonathan Taylor went wild. The Colts ran just 52 plays in the entire game but still managed to score 38.
A second explanation might involve Daniel Jones’ recent lower leg injury. If the QB’s running is limited, that indeed could have a detrimental impact on the overall running game. But that seems iffy at best. Jones, when healthy, can still run. But the fact is, he has not done it very much this year. He has not needed to. Besides, Steichen seemed to be turning away from the run before Jones was hurt.
There have been no other injuries to key personnel. At least none that have been publicly acknowledged. What appears to be happening from an outsider’s perspective is that the Colts have begun facing better competition. They have encountered more resistance, and when a couple of Taylor runs are stuffed, Steichen simply gives up on trying.
Consider Week 13’s crucial matchup with Houston. Playing at home, Steichen opted to take the ball after winning the coin flip. Then he proceeded to call three straight passes. Indy gained two yards and punted.
Jump ahead to the Colts’ final series. Down by four with just under five minutes to go. Jones drove the team from his own 17 to Houston’s 31. Four Taylor runs gained 25 yards. One deep cross to Alex Pierce picked up 22. There was plenty of time left on the clock.
Taylor got stopped on a first-down run for one yard, then Steichen called three consecutive passes. All were incomplete. They were the last three offensive plays Indy ran on the day.
So in the team’s most important game of the season, Shane Steichen opened and closed with three pass plays. His team gained a total of two yards. Meanwhile, Jonathan Taylor, the league’s leading rusher, was mostly a bystander.
With a string of tough games coming up, the Colts are now in danger of an epic collapse. Steichen might want to try and re-establish Taylor and the running game before it’s too late. Will getting back to the run turn things back in a positive direction? Maybe not. But if the Colts are going down, it is better they go down making full use of their best weapon.