Chris Ballard must defy the odds.
As Indianapolis Colts fans are painfully aware, the team has languished around the .500 mark in Ballard’s past three seasons as the franchise’s primary football decision-maker. Recent NFL history tells us teams that hover around .500 for multiple seasons generally don’t blossom into championship contenders.
The lone exception this century? The 2019 Tennessee Titans are the only team in the 2000s to follow up three consecutive seasons with eight or nine wins – just like the Colts the past three years - with a run to a conference championship game.
It wasn’t a one-year fluke – the Titans also were the No. 1 seed for the AFC playoffs in 2021. What lessons can Ballard copy from that Tennessee team’s breakthrough?
Indianapolis Colts GM Chris Ballard must prioritize the defense in his offseason moves
The 2019 Titans were 92 points better on offense than the previous season. It’s not realistic to expect a 92-point improvement from what is already an efficient Colts offense. However, that kind of improvement on defense would give Indianapolis a top 10 scoring defense to go along with a top 10 scoring offense – the statistical profile of a true playoff contender.
Ballard isn’t known for splashy signings or risky trades. The moves he makes this offseason must maintain the quality of the offense while boosting the talent level on the defense.
It might be an overly rosy analysis … but boosts to the defensive roster plus healthier seasons from players like defensive backs Charvarius Ward and Sauce Gardner and defensive line anchor DeForest Buckner should add up to a playoff-caliber defense.
Ballard must hit a home run in the draft
As Colts fans are also painfully aware, Indianapolis doesn’t have a first-round pick in the upcoming 2026 NFL Draft due to the midseason trade for Sauce Gardner.
However, if we’re following the 2019 Tennessee Titans blueprint, Ballard’s job is to add at least one impact rookie outside of the first round. Tennessee nabbed eventual three-time All-Pro A.J. Brown with its second-round pick ahead of the 2019 season.
Ballard must establish quarterback depth
Tennessee’s postseason run in 2019 was sparked by a midseason quarterback change from Marcus Mariota to offseason acquisition Ryan Tannehill. The Titans went 7-3 under Tannehill after a sputtering 2-4 start and then beat the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens in the playoffs to reach the AFC title game.
No one is suggesting Indianapolis needs to plan on a midseason quarterback change in 2026. However, the Colts must acknowledge there is at least some uncertainty in the quarterback room due to the unknowns of Daniel Jones’ recovery from a late-season Achilles’ tendon rupture. They must plan accordingly.
Ballard can’t neglect the kicking game
Here’s an area where Ballard doesn’t want to emulate the 2019 Titans. Tennessee had the worst field goal unit in the league in 2019 (which is saying something, as Colts fans might remember Adam Vinatieri’s struggles that year in what was his final season). Titans kickers made just 8 of 18 field attempts that season – numbers you’d expect from a high school team, not an NFL playoff contender.
The Colts had to go through three kickers in 2026. Spencer Shrader was on pace for a strong year before sustaining a season-ending injury in Week 5.
Shrader’s replacement, Michael Badgley, made 10 of 11 field goals, but also missed three extra points in his seven games, resulting in his release after Week 13. Blake Grupe didn’t miss a kick over the last five games. Ballard must make sure the kicking situation is stabilized at the start of 2026.