I want you, Indianapolis Colts fan, to consider two hypothetical NFL drafts. Actually, they aren’t hypothetical at all, but you can consider them as such for purposes of this little exercise.
These two drafts took place in the same year. The recent past. And they match up well. The two teams had roughly the same amount of draft capital. Team One had picks in each of the first five rounds and then four in round six for a total of nine selections. Team Two had a pick in all seven rounds, with one extra in round four and two extras in round six. Total picks… ten.
They were both choosing in the middle of each round. Neither team had picks in the top ten.
Chris Ballard has failed the Indianapolis Colts in one fundamental area
After six seasons, five of Team One’s nine picks were still in the league. The nine players had a combined weighted career approximate value of 149. At the same point, Team Two had two players still in the league and a combined wAV of 142.
Who had the better draft?
I’m going to say, based on the numbers I’ve provided, that Team One had a better draft. The margin isn’t huge, but it’s pretty clear. Here’s the twist to the story.
These drafts came in 2020. Team One is the Indianapolis Colts, and the draft was conducted by its maligned GM Chris Ballard.
Team Two is the Philadelphia Eagles. Their draft was run by Howie Roseman, often considered the sharpest GM in the NFL. Since this draft, the Eagles have been to the Super Bowl twice, claiming one Lombardi trophy.
The Colts have played in one playoff game, which they lost.
Chris Ballard has brought a lot of talented players to Indianapolis. But he has not won. Not since he lost Andrew Luck. The strategy he has employed since Luck’s sudden retirement in 2019 has been wrongheaded, and it has delayed the Colts’ return to competitiveness. It suggests a very fundamental inability to understand his own roster and recognize what he needs to make it better.
Ballard was dealt a terrible hand. Luck’s retirement just before the 2019 season effectively sabotaged that year and probably a couple more. The problem was made worse by the fact that the years immediately following Luck’s departure were not great ones for quarterbacks in the draft.
There was some justification in acquiring Philip Rivers in 2020 to see if the veteran could lead Indy to playoff success. When he did not, that was the time for Ballard to pull up. He needed to understand that at that point, his roster wasn’t good enough. It had some pieces, sure, but it was middle of the pack.
Spending two more seasons futilely chasing success with Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan amounted to a GM cardinal sin. Even if he didn’t have to give up very much for them – even if he recouped the Wentz cost by shipping him off to Washington – the presence of tired, ineffective veterans stymied any real efforts to solve the QB problem.
I’m not guaranteeing Ballard would have chosen the right guy. When he did finally attempt to find a young quarterback, he made a major mistake with Anthony Richardson. Maybe he would have drafted Kenny Pickett or gone all in on Justin Fields.
The point is, he didn’t try. Apparently, because he thought he didn’t have to. 2021 and 2022 were terrible drafts for quarterbacks, but Malik Willis and Brock Purdy did come into the league. If Ballard had prioritized getting a QB rather than restocking retreads, maybe one of them would be leading the Colts today.
Here’s the end of the 2020 draft story. Ballard got Michael Pittman and Jonathan Taylor. He got Julian Blackmon and good sixth-round value in Isaiah Rodgers. Howie Roseman got a safety in K’Von Wallace, who been with five teams in six years.
And he got Jalen Hurts, the quarterback who was MVP of the Super Bowl last year.
Maybe you don’t think Hurts is that good. He just got lucky to be on a talented team. That’s fine. I know a lot of people believe that. The point, as it relates to GMs, is that Howie Roseman recognized the importance of getting a talented young quarterback to grow with his roster, and Chris Ballard did not.
Had Hurts flamed out, I have little doubt Roseman would have moved on quickly, as he did when Wentz began to crumble.
Ballard, on the other hand, thought Wentz was the answer. Presumably, he could do what Tom Brady and Matt Stafford were doing in Tampa and Los Angeles. That wasn’t merely a misjudging of the QBs involved. It was a misread of his own roster, which wasn’t good enough at the time.
This is the exact same mindset that brought Philip Rivers back in 2025, rather than giving a chance to Riley Leonard. Rivers may well have played better than Leonard would have. The fact is, we’ll never know. The other fact is that bringing Rivers back resulted in exactly zero wins for the team.
Yep, Ballard was dealt a bad hand. If Daniel Jones doesn’t get hurt this year, I’m probably not writing this. But if he continues to misjudge his quarterback situation, the Colts will continue to languish in the anonymous middle of the league.