The Indianapolis Colts not only need to be a lot more consistent in 2026 and not have a great start and an awful finish, but to win the AFC South, Indy has to climb over the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars. Right tackle Braden Smith, going to Houston, won't make that easier.
The Texans had (and likely will still have) a great defense, and after getting off to a wretched start, still won 12 games and made the postseason. What Houston lacked was a good offensive line. According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), the Texans were ranked 27th among NFL O-lines this past season.
The biggest issue for Houston wasn't right tackle necessarily, but Trent Brown was only able to play about half the season. Smith, assuming he can stay a bit healthier than he has in the last three seasons, will solidify a unit that kept Houston from meeting its potential, while making struggling quarterback C.J. Stroud feel more comfortable.
AFC South got tougher by the Houston Texans taking Braden Smith from the Indianapolis Colts
The positive part for Indianapolis was that Jalen Travis was pretty good in the games he replaced Smith, but Smith and Travis don't play against each other, of course. The Colts will be tasked with trying to get pressure on Stroud while trying to beat their former longtime starter at right tackle. Indy knows this will be difficult.
Moreover, Indy hasn't gotten any better at edge rusher this offseason, at least not yet. Kwity Paye left in free agency and was replaced by Arden Key. At best, that move is breakeven for Indianapolis. At worst, Paye, even while never quite meeting his first-round draft pick expectations, is a better player than Key.
The Colts have retained quarterback Daniel Jones and wide receiver Alec Pierce, but that doesn't upgrade the roster; the two players were already on it. Indy signed Key, Michael Clemons, and Derrick Nnadi defensively, but none of those guys are expected to be game-changers.
The Jaguars haven't accomplished anything in free agency, but the Tennessee Titans have, at least on paper, improved a great deal. The Texans have gotten better, too. Maybe if Daniel Jones had stayed healthy, the Colts could have stayed in the AFC South race this past season, but the Texans and Jags kept improving throughout the season. Indy still faces an uphill battle.
That battle was made a bit more difficult by the Texans stealing Braden Smith, whom the Indianapolis Colts couldn't afford after re-signing Jones and Pierce. Let's hope the loss doesn't haunt Indy twice a year for the foreseeable future.