NFL Spin Zone’s Ryan Heckman came out with bold predictions for NFL quarterbacks on Tuesday, and Indianapolis Colts fans are praying that he is right. Playing one of the most contrarian cards imaginable, Heckman has Indianapolis’ Daniel Jones throwing for three touchdowns in a Colts’ victory over the Miami Dolphins.
Picking an Indy win isn’t particularly bold. The game is basically a toss-up in most minds. Tabbing Jones for such a big day? That’s a different story. That is bold with a capital B.
Most analysts recognize that the Colts’ roster is pretty good. There are certainly holes. This isn’t the Philadelphia Eagles. But with a solid offensive line, an improving receiving corps, and two potential studs in Jonathan Taylor and Tyler Warren, Indy’s offense has talent. They just don’t have a reliable quarterback. Not one who seems likely to throw for three touchdown passes on any given Sunday.
How will Daniel Jones perform in his first start as the Colts’ QB?
If you are feeling pessimistic, or if you want to push back on Heckman’s rosy projection, here are some sobering facts to consider.
Daniel Jones has played in 70 NFL games. He has never had a three-touchdown game. Now, he has thrown more than three. In fact, he threw for five touchdowns once and four twice. All three of those games came in his rookie season … in 2019.
Since then, Jones has appeared in 57 games, mostly as a starter, and has never thrown more than two. He hasn’t even thrown two in all that many. Since 2020, Daniel Jones has tossed a grand total of 46 TDs in those 57 games. I’m not great at math, but I don’t think that instills much confidence that he could throw three on Sunday.
But he is playing in a new system. Maybe Jim Bob Cooter can unlock something in the Duke alum. Indeed, Cooter’s offenses have produced three-touchdown games in the past two seasons. Gardner Minshew did it against Pittsburgh in 2023, and Joe Flacco managed it against Jacksonville last year. By my count, that is twice in 34 games.
All told, in those 34 games, Colts’ QBs have piled up 38 touchdown passes. Again, I don’t want to hit on the math too hard, but an offensive scheme that averages 1.1 TD passes per game doesn’t seem likely to suddenly throw three, especially when it is starting a QB who has no track record of putting up those kinds of big numbers.
But now, let’s look at the flip side. Why does Heckman think this is possible?
Miami’s secondary is in big trouble.
For one thing, it is almost entirely brand new this year.
2024's starting cornerbacks, Kendall Fuller and Jalen Ramsey, are gone. Their best returning player, Kader Kohou, is out for the year. Their projected starters on Sunday include Storm Duck and Rasul Douglas, both graded out in the bottom quarter of Pro Football Focus’s (subscription required) rankings for 2024. The third corner figures to be Jason Marshall, Jr., a rookie fifth-round draft pick.
The situation at safety is no better, where veterans Minkah Fitzpatrick and Ifeatu Melifonwu are both brand new to the team. Melifonwu was activated off the NFI list a week ago. The secondary does not figure to have a lot of cohesiveness.
Jones will be throwing to the most talented group of receivers he has ever had. He has explosive talents like Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell. He has steady pros like Michael Pittman, Jr., and Josh Downs. And he has a secret weapon in rookie tight end Tyler Warren, who can run any pattern and attack the defense in a variety of ways.
Indy clearly wants to lean on Jonathan Taylor and the running game a lot this season. But showing a dangerous passing attack will go a long way toward making life easier for Taylor. It’s entirely possible that Cooter will try to take advantage of a Dolphins defense that will be focused on stopping the run.
I think I may have talked myself into something here. I still find three touchdown passes a reach. But two scoring throws and a win? I could definitely see that playing out. I think Colts’ fans would be delighted with that outcome.