Keep an eye on these numbers of prime importance during the Indianapolis Colts’ prime-time Sunday Night Football game on September 20 against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Indianapolis needs to be on the right side of 22 points, put together a reasonably effective night in the passing game, and enjoy a decisive advantage in the running game to have a chance to beat Kansas City on the Chiefs' home field and avoid a 0-2 start.
Here are the three numbers that will decide the Indianapolis-Kansas City matchup.
The Indianapolis Colts must win the race to 22 points
Twenty-two points have been the magic number for the Chiefs since the start of the 2025 season. Kansas City is 7-2 since the start of last season when it scores 22 points or more. The Chiefs are 0-9 when they don’t. It works in reverse. Kansas City is 0-6 over the same stretch when it allows 22 points or more.
The rule held when the Colts played the Chiefs last season. It took overtime, but Kansas City won the race to 22 points, and the Chiefs won the game 23-20.
Take heart, Indianapolis fans. As bad as the Colts’ Week 1 performance against the Baltimore Ravens was, they did score 23 points in the 41-23 loss.
The Colts must finish with more than 200 passing yards
A total of 200 passing yards sounds pedestrian, but it’s been enough to beat Kansas City. The Chiefs are 0-7 since the start of last season, when their opponent finished with more than 200 yards in the passing game – a surprising stat for a team that employs Patrick Mahomes as its starting quarterback.
Sure enough, Indianapolis managed just 181 passing yards in its loss to Kansas City last season. It was the Colts’ fewest total yards in the passing game to that point in the 2025 season.
A worrisome sign: Indianapolis managed a meager 149 yards in the passing game in Week 1 against Baltimore.
The Colts need a 50-yard advantage in the running game
Kansas City’s ground game has been pedestrian in recent years, but the Chiefs seem to have gotten an immediate boost from the addition of Kenneth Walker III, the reigning Super Bowl MVP. Walker ran for 173 yards in Kansas City’s impressive win against the Denver Broncos in the first Monday Night Football game of the 2026 season.
The Colts are 7-1 since the start of last season, when they had an advantage of more than 50 yards in the running game. It would behoove Indianapolis to hit that benchmark on Sunday night. If the Colts generate that kind of advantage in the running game, it probably means Indianapolis limited Walker’s damage and also got solid production from Jonathan Taylor and its own ground game.
Surprisingly, the Colts were outgained by 74 yards in the running game against the Chiefs last season – yet another factor that, in retrospect, explains the overtime loss.
Another worrisome sign: Indianapolis was outgained by 100 rushing yards last week against Baltimore. The Colts finished with a respectable 102 yards of their own … but yielded 202.
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