Best and worst case Week 18 scenarios for Colts draft position
One game stands between the Indianapolis Colts and the end of the season, and all eyes in Indy are where the team will be selecting in the 2023 NFL Draft.
The Indianapolis Colts (4-11-1) host the Houston Texans (2-13-1) this Sunday for the team’s final regular season game of the 2023 season. The two teams last played in Houston in Week 1, which ended in a tie after the Texans led 20-3 at the end of the third quarter. Indianapolis stormed back into the game but ran out of gas late and the game ended 20-20.
Now, the rematch comes in Week 18 with both teams out of playoff contention. Meanwhile, the other half of the AFC South will be competing to crown a division champion. The 7-9 Tennessee Titans and the 8-8 Jacksonville Jaguars will be playing Saturday night in a winner-takes-all game. Whoever is victorious will win the division and punch their ticket to the postseason.
While a division title and playoff berth aren’t on the line for Indy’s game with Houston, the Week 18 matchup isn’t entirely meaningless. The outcome of this game could have major implications on the 2023 Draft order, especially for Indy. Entering the season finale, there are a few positions the Colts could be in for the draft which could land the franchise their young star quarterback.
2-13-1. 10. Sunday, January 8. 1 PM ET. CBS. 4-11-1. 46. Colts -2.5
Currently, Indianapolis is drafting with the No. 5 pick but could move up as high as the No. 3 pick or drop to the No. 6 pick. Here are all of the Week 18 scenarios that could affect where Indy is selecting in the 2023 Draft.
How Colts can get the No. 3 overall pick
The Seattle Seahawks currently hold this pick via a trade with the Denver Broncos (4-12) during the 2022 offseason. The Broncos acquired quarterback Russell Wilson in this trade. The Seahawks could end up drafting their quarterback of the future with this pick but is likely to pick the best player on the board to boost up their defense.
For the Colts to get to the No. 3 pick, the following would need to happen:
- IND loses to HOU, AND
- DEN defeats LAC, AND
- ARI defeats SF
This would move the Colts to the No. 3 overall pick by Denver and Arizona improving to 5-12 while Indianapolis would fall to 4-12-1.
How Colts can get the No. 4 overall pick
The Arizona Cardinals currently hold this pick. With Kyler Murray signing his long-term deal before the season started, which locks him financially to the team through the 2028 season, they shouldn’t be looking for a new quarterback in the draft. At least not in the first round. This could make the Cardinals a prime target for a quarterback-needy team to trade up and give the Cardinals value for their pick to build up a roster for the future.
For the Colts to get the No. 4 pick, the following would need to happen:
- IND lose to HOU, AND
- ARI defeats SF OR DEN defeats LAC
This moves the Colts up to the No. 4 overall pick and puts them in a better position to draft their quarterback. This is similar to getting to the No. 3 pick, but if one of the two teams wins, it’s not detrimental and the Colts would still move up.
How Colts can get the No. 5 overall pick
This is where Indianapolis is currently picking in the draft, but this becomes the more difficult position to retain after Week 18. There are several things that could bump the Colts out of this position either forward or backward.
For the Colts to retain the No. 5 pick, the following would need to happen:
- IND lose to HOU, AND
- ARI lose to SF, AND
- DEN lose to LAC
OR
- IND defeats HOU, AND
- LAR defeats SEA
There are two different routes to retaining this pick based on whether the Colts win or lose to the Texans this week. Unlike the No. 3 and No. 4 spots, the Colts can still stay in this position if they win, but the Rams would need to win also.
If the Rams happen to lose as well, this drops the Colts down, giving the Detroit Lions the No. 5 pick in the draft (acquired in a trade involving Matthew Stafford). The Colts dropping out of this position is the worst-case scenario as the Lions could draft their quarterback that can sit behind Jared Goff for one year.
How Colts can get the No. 6 overall pick
The Detroit Lions currently hold this pick via a trade with the Los Angeles Rams, which sent Stafford to the Rams in 2021. With a 5-11 record and Baker Mayfield leading the way, the Rams have nothing to lose by winning a game.
For the Colts to fall to the No. 6 pick, the following would need to happen:
- IND defeats HOU, AND
- LAR loses to SEA
As mentioned above, this is the absolute worst-case scenario for the Colts, as this puts another team in front of Indianapolis that could likely draft a quarterback. This would mean that three of the first five teams could be looking at drafting a quarterback, but it could also mean that only one does, and two of the others trade back. Too many options here falling to the No. 6 pick, so it’s best if they are able to stay at No. 5 or move up to No. 3 or No. 4.
