ESPN is worried that Quenton Nelson is on the decline for the Colts
Quenton Nelson has been one of the best players for the Indianapolis Colts but experts are worried that he is regressing.
Through Quenton Nelson’s first four seasons in the league, he had established himself as the best guard in football and one of the best players in the NFL. He made the Pro Bowl and an All-Pro team for each of his first four seasons in the NFL. Chris Ballard was ready to put a gold jacket on Nelson after last season, and right before the 2022 season started, the Indianapolis Colts made Nelson the highest-paid guard in NFL history.
However, something happened this season that no one was expecting: Quenton Nelson has been noticeably less dominant. For the first time in his career, Nelson will likely miss the Pro Bowl and won’t be selected to an All-Pro team. The offensive line for the Colts has struggled all season, and unlike in years past, Nelson hasn’t been blameless in those struggles.
NFL experts have noticed as well, and because of it, Nelson has ended up on the kind of lists that players never want to be on, the kind that Big Q avoided during his first four seasons. In a recent piece by ESPN, Seth Walder named five breakout players from this season and five declining stars. Unfortunately for Nelson and the Colts, Quenton Nelson was listed as one of the declining stars.
Should Colts fans be worried about Quenton Nelson?
Walder specializes in analytics, so he used Pass Block Win Rate (PBWR) and Run Block Win Rate (RBWR) to shed light on Nelson’s decline. Walder mapped Nelson’s rise and fall in these categories over the last five seasons, 2022 included. After being top 15 in both for the last three seasons, including No. 3 in PBWR and No. 1 in RBWR in 2020, Nelson has slid down the list this season.
As Walder explained, “This year has been a step back, though. Nelson has dropped to 36th and 17th in pass block and run block win rate, respectively. In other words, he has been an average pass blocker.” That’s not a good development for the lineman that was generational in his first four seasons. The real question, though, is should the Colts and their fans be worried about Nelson’s performance?
You can’t argue that Nelson wasn’t deserving of his contract because he did everything necessary to earn it in his first four seasons. However, it’s always a tough situation when players get big, long-term contracts and then start to underperform. That puts everyone in a tough position. Hopefully, that won’t be the case with Nelson. While he’s currently not playing near his best, it is just one season.
A lot of great players have had underwhelming stretches of football but they bounce back. Each season is its own entity, and every year, players are dealing with so many factors that can influence their play positively or negatively. It’s probably not time to worry about Quenton Nelson yet but he will have a lot of eyes on him next season to see if he’s returning to form.
