Two statistics, Team DVOA & Team Record, show why the slow-starting Indianapolis Colts should improve as the season goes on.
It’s no secret that the Frank Reich-led Indianapolis Colts are notorious for starting seasons slowly. More specifically, the Colts, under Reich, have a (cumulative) losing record through each season’s first five weeks during his tenure as HC. What is also no secret, however, is that the same Reich-led Colts teams drastically improve after Week 5.
I present to you, through incontrovertible analysis, why the Indianapolis Colts offense is poised for improvement, and it starts with something called DVOA.
What is Team DVOA?
Per the birth givers of said statistic, Football Outsiders, the term described goes as followed, “DVOA measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.” Let me add, this is their ultra-short version of the definition. They also have a shortened version, as well as a full, detailed version. This just goes to show you how much is taken into account when developing a statistic as intricate as this one.
DVOA, which is short for “Defensive-adjusted Value Over Average,” is an analytical metric that attempts to tell all sides of the story. The mainstream statistics that we all know and love, i.e. yards, touchdowns, etc., only serve as a means to what actually happened. For example, say a team is down three points in the fourth quarter with time dwindling and they net themselves a 45-yard touchdown score. Now, say that same team in a different game is down 24 points in the fourth quarter with time dwindling and they score on an identical 45-yard score. Those are equally impressive, right? DVOA says no. Matter of fact, the metric itself would argue those two scores are wildly different when it comes to measuring quality.
In other words, DVOA helps formulate many moving factors into one stable statistic. It can even provide insight from player and unit perspectives. Kris Burke does a phenomenal job of simplifying it for the casual fan in his article from 2020 where he dives into exactly what DVOA’s purpose is. My favorite quote from Burke’s article is when he said, “DVOA helps put “garbage time” yardage into perspective by comparing a team’s results to what an average play in the same situation would do.” This is one of the most important calculations when determining DVOA, in my opinion, as it offers additional closure as to why similar box scores often tell a different story.
Do you ever come across any sports debate and someone ends up saying, “do you even watch the games?” I, for one, believe that rebuttal is exactly what DVOA tries to achieve. Often, that response I just mentioned is used towards someone who simply lists off a player or group’s stats in an attempt to prove a point. It’d be too easy for analysts, fans, etc, to merely check a box score after every game to determine who played well. DVOA, like the “did you watch the game” response, questions those traditional statistics by providing additional context.
Now that you know what DVOA consists of, it’s time to dive into why these metrics tell us that the Colts’ offense is poised for improvement.
First, it’s important to remind one’s self that this is the fifth starting QB in as many years for the Colts. Inversely, as many times as Matt Ryan has gone through coaching & regime changes, this is his first year not being in Atlanta. Therefore, growing pains are assumed. All of this coupled with the Colts’ dawdling starts in recent memory, one would be remiss to presume an organizational implosion oh so abruptly.