NFL data analyst projects how many games Colts will win this season

Sep 13, 2020; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Indianapolis Colts running back Nyheim Hines (21) celebrates with wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. (11) after scoring a touchdown during the first quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 13, 2020; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Indianapolis Colts running back Nyheim Hines (21) celebrates with wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. (11) after scoring a touchdown during the first quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports

Many people are high on the Indianapolis Colts entering the 2022 season, but how do the analytics project Indy performing this season?

On Sunday, the Indianapolis Colts will officially start what should be a promising season. Indy was already a talented team last season, and after a disappointing finish last year, Indianapolis was fueled to add even more talent throughout the offseason. Now, the Colts enter the season with a quality roster and a good chance to make the playoffs.

Many fans and media members are already predicting Indianapolis to win the AFC South and punch its ticket to the postseason. But, in the modern time of analytics, it can always be interesting to see what the data projects. NFL Network’s Cynthia Frelund recently detailed some data projections for the upcoming season.

In a recent article, Frelund created a very detailed formula and ran 1,000,000 simulations to project a win total for all 32 teams. For the Colts, the model projected 10.3 wins and that Indy would win the AFC South. Indy’s ceiling was also listed at 12.1 wins with a floor of nine wins. A very promising projection for Indy.

Colts are projected to win 10 games this season

The 10.3 projection is the third highest in the AFC, trailing only the Buffalo Bills at 11.7 and the Kansas City Chiefs at 10.7. So that puts Indianapolis squarely in the mix as one of the best teams in the AFC.

In addition to the projection, Frelund added that Jonathan Taylor is “likely to sustain or even improve his effectiveness” after a breakout year last season. If Taylor is rolling like he was last season, the Colts will definitely win a lot of games. The hope, however, is that Taylor will have much more help and that Indy would be able to win even more this coming season and not fall short of its goals.

Last year, Indianapolis was only 9-8 and fell one game short of the playoffs. If they can meet the projected 10 wins, that would be an improvement from last season and the Colts will likely be in the postseason. However, Indy is hoping for much more than 10 wins and a playoff berth.

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