Matt Ryan’s first season with Colts could be like Matthew Stafford’s with the Rams
The Indianapolis Colts traded for Matt Ryan this offseason and they’re hoping for similar results as teams who’ve recently traded for quarterbacks.
In the history of the NFL, most struggling teams usually find a franchise quarterback and then try to build around him. However, the model has reversed in recent years.
Teams are building up competitive rosters and then going after elite quarterbacks as the final piece. That’s what the Tampa Bay Buccaneers did in 2020 when they signed Tom Brady and then won a Super Bowl.
It’s also what the Los Angeles Rams did last year when they traded for Matthew Stafford before going on to win last season’s Super Bowl.
There are a few teams that are hoping to be next in this trend. One is the Denver Broncos who traded for Russell Wilson and another is the Indianapolis Colts who traded for Matt Ryan.
Both teams have the roster, and now the quarterback, to be competitive in the postseason this year.
Matt Ryan has played only one year longer than Matt Stafford.
— Lawrence Owen (@Colts_Law) May 16, 2022
Both players have had receiving stars, but terrible Defense, O-line, and running game in general.
Career: Ryan and Stafford have near identical TD%.
But Ryan wins in comp %, and lower INT%, and 10k more yards. pic.twitter.com/SXX9feGxcK
Colts are hoping Matt Ryan can lead them to a Super Bowl
Recent quarterback stats show that it may not be far-fetched for either Indianapolis or Denver to expect their new quarterbacks to get them to a Super Bowl.
In a recent piece by PFF, Seth Galina separated the league’s quarterbacks into tiers. Tier A was for the “Golden Oldies”, quarterbacks that are over 30 and still playing well.
The tier consisted of Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Wilson, Stafford, and Ryan. However, Galina noted that Wilson, Stafford, and Ryan have all graded pretty closely with each other in the last five years.
There was also a graph comparing Stafford and Ryan over the last five seasons. In three of the five seasons, Matt Ryan has graded better than Stafford.
Stafford’s best season, and the year he outperformed Ryan the most, was last year. Stafford was playing with a loaded Rams team and Ryan was playing with a struggling Falcons team.
However, Matt Ryan is now surrounded by a competent team. Stafford is still with a stacked Los Angeles team but the point isn’t necessarily about what they will do in comparison to each other.
That chart shows that when both quarterbacks were playing in less than ideal situations, Ryan was slightly outperforming Stafford. Once Stafford joined a better roster, he elevated his game and helped his team win a Super Bowl.
The Colts are hoping that’s what can happen for them. Indy’s offense may not be as loaded as the Rams’ is but Ryan will have the best running back in football, emerging young pass-catchers, and a stacked defense.
If he can take a leap similar to the one Stafford did in his first season away from Detroit, the ceiling for next season’s Colts team is a Super Bowl victory.
