Colts have 1 key advantage in tight AFC playoff picture
The race for AFC playoff spots is closer than ever but the Indianapolis Colts have an advantage over the field.
The Indianapolis Colts left for a Week 14 bye as a team sitting on the outside of the playoffs and they returned as the current sixth seed heading into Week 15. The reason Indianapolis was able to make this jump without playing a game is because so many contenders have similar records.
After the conclusion of Week 14, there are six AFC teams with six losses. The Colts, Bills, Browns, Bengals, and Broncos are all 7-6 while the Steelers are 6-6-1 because ties are still allowed for some reason.
With this many teams sharing the same record, the NFL has several tiebreaking rules to determine which franchise will receive the higher ranking.
Luckily, Indy has been winning the necessary games all season, controlling all of the tiebreakers and that is why they are ranked as the highest 7-6 team.
With losses by the Bills and Bengals, the Colts jumped from outside the playoffs up to the AFC 6 seed today.
— Zak Keefer (@zkeefer) December 13, 2021
At 7-6, Indy has the tiebreaker over Buffalo (head-to-head) and Cleveland, Cincy and Denver (AFC record).
Next two for Colts: vs. NE and at AZ, both currently 1 seeds.
Colts holding tiebreaker will be huge advantage in AFC playoff race
Indianapolis’s Week 11 blowout of the Bills give it the tiebreaker over Buffalo. For the other three teams, Indy has the best record against AFC opponents.
Currently, the Colts have an AFC record of 6-3. Cleveland’s is 4-5, Cincinnati’s is 5-3 and Denver’s is 3-5. With four games remaining, it seems pretty unlikely that any of these three teams will be able to catch Indianapolis in terms of tiebreakers.
Indy has three remaining AFC games, the Browns also have three, and the Bengals and Broncos both have four. If any of these teams get a comparable AFC record to Indianapolis, that means Indy is sliding out the playoffs and will have a worse overall record anyway.
The tiebreaker gives the Colts a huge advantage in case they are unable to separate from the pack down the stretch of the season. It gives them room for maybe one or two losses in the next four games but that’s it’s. With a remaining schedule that has two of the top teams in the NFL, that room for error will be necessary.
However, Indianapolis shouldn’t worry about what tiebreakers they have since they are already seeded in the postseason. Their main focus should just be winning the remaining four games and that avoids all the extra technicalities. Win out and the Colts are in, stumble to the finish line and they’ll be watching screens rooting for other teams.
