The Indianapolis Colts will return from the bye with a chance to make the playoffs, but it will be tough.
On Sunday against the Houston Texans, the Indianapolis Colts dominated from start to finish with a 31-0 victory and headed into their bye week 7-6. Spirits were high as the team was excited for the win and the long-awaited break.
However, waiting for the Colts on the other side of the bye is a brutal schedule that they must conquer if they want to advance to the playoffs. Unfortunately for Indianapolis, a pattern in their record this season makes it seem unlikely that the team will have success following the bye.
That pattern is Indy’s record against teams above 500.
On the surface, the Colts are a team slightly above 500 with a chance to make the playoffs. Beneath the 7-6 exterior is a team that has dominated incompetent opponents while struggling against the quality teams in the league.
Colts struggle against teams with winning records
This is a narrative that is usually blown out of proportion when talking about contenders as that’s how records typically break down. Quality teams beat the teams they’re supposed to while they compete and exchange games with other quality opponents. The problem for Indianapolis is that it hasn’t been much exchanging.
The Colts are a dominant 6-1 against teams with a 500 record or worse and they are an abysmal 1-5 against teams with a winning record. Not only is that a troubling stat if Indy makes it into the postseason, but it’s concerning for Indianapolis’ path to playoffs.
AFC playoff picture after 13 weeks:
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) December 7, 2021
1) Patriots: 9-4
2) Titans: 8-4
3) Ravens: 8-4
4) Chiefs: 8-4
5) Chargers: 7-5
6) Bengals: 7-5
7) Bills: 7-5
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Colts: 7-6
Steelers: 6-5-1
Raiders: 6-6
Broncos: 6-6
Browns: 6-6
Dolphins: 6-7
The four remaining games on the Colts’ schedule are against the Patriots, Cardinals, Raiders, and Jaguars. The Raiders are currently 6-6 after a last-second loss on Sunday to Washington, the Patriots are 9-4, the Cardinals have the best record in the NFL at 10-2 and the Jaguars are, well, the Jaguars.
If Indianapolis is going to make the postseason, they will have to do something they haven’t been doing well all year, winning against teams that win a lot.
Despite the previous struggles, there is a reason for Colts fans to be optimistic. Although Indy has been dominated in terms of wins and losses, they haven’t actually been dominated in the games against teams with winning records.
The Colts are capable of beating winning teams
In the five losses against teams with winning records, the average margin of defeat for Indianapolis is 5.6 points. Four of the games were decided by one possession and two were in overtime, so the Colts have proven they can compete.
Now they must prove they can win these games. While this bye week is necessary for Indianapolis to rest, the players also need to use it to mentally recharge so they can go to another level when they return. The team’s goals are right in front of them, but they’ll have to go through some quality teams to reach them.
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