The likelihood of the Jaguars giving up the first overall pick is very low…make that zero. Trevor Lawrence will presumably be the first player off the board, as the Jaguars will probably get their franchise quarterback. The only player that has been more NFL-ready in recent years was Andrew Luck in 2012. Perhaps Indy could get this pick if they surrendered every single selection in this year’s draft and next?
The Jets are operating the same as the Jaguars this time around. With the departure of Sam Darnold, New York will either pick Zach Wilson or Trevor Lawrence, whomever the Jaguars don’t pick. The Jets have a whole host of holes to fill, but quarterback is the most important for them at this point and there is no way they trade back to 21 with all the talent that will be off the board by then.
If there is any team in the top three that would be willing to trade down in a typical scenario, it’s the 49ers. John Lynch is a very cynical GM and would do anything to make a name for himself. However, the Niners traded up specifically to get this pick. No matter what they’re saying publicly, the intent here was to select a specific quarterback whom they have assessed as being better for their offense than Wilson. They believe in someone here.
If they trade down again, and pulled off this massive deal with Miami just to accrue more Colts picks, that’d be off the beaten path, to say the least.
Ah. Now we’re getting somewhere.
The Falcons and newly-hired coach/GM combo Arthur Smith and Terry Fontenot could be looking to rebuild the roster from its abysmal state. Not only do the Falcons have monster contracts to aging players like Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, but they also have younger stars that are looking to get paid like Deion Jones. Both the GM and the coach have committed to rebuilding the roster, and the first thing you’d do in that instance would be pile up draft capital. Giving away a top-five pick for three other picks in the later rounds could be something the Falcons could entertain, since most people have them taking Kyle Pitts, a supplementary and confusing weapon at this spot anyway.
Last year, the Bengals discovered what took Ryan Grigson years to figure out: you must protect your star quarterback. If there’s any team in the first five picks that’s set in stone for an offensive tackle, it’s this team. Theoretically, the Colts could make this deal since there is a huge amount of talent on the offensive line in this year’s draft. But that statement defeats itself. If there’s a bunch of offensive line talent, why trade up, right?