Colts: Here’s how Indy can clinch playoff berth or AFC South division title

Here’s what has to happen for the Colts to clinch a playoff berth or the AFC South title over the final two weeks.

It certainly wasn’t easy, but the Indianapolis Colts came one step closer to solidifying playoff qualification on Sunday in another thrilling victory over a depleted Houston Texans side.

If not for Darius Leonard’s heroics in the waning moments, this conversation would be A LOT different. That obviously isn’t to say that fans shouldn’t feel good about the win, but the Colts’ inability to kill the game off was a major cause for concern, and they almost paid the ultimate price.

While the coaching staff focuses on adjustments it should make ahead of next weekend’s box-office showdown vs Pittsburgh, a team that has looked incredibly vulnerable of late, we can devote all of our attention to potential scenarios that would see Indianapolis clinch either a playoff berth or the division title over the remaining two weeks.

Let’s start with the more likely outcome: the Colts clinching a playoff spot. In order for them to do that this week, they have to beat Pittsburgh and watch one of Miami (vs the Giants) or Baltimore (vs the Giants) suffer a defeat. If all three teams win, however, their playoff odds increase to 99%, so it wouldn’t be all doom and gloom to have to wait until the final week.

It’s unfortunately impossible for Indy to qualify if they lose this week. In that scenario, they would have to root against the likes of Miami and Baltimore this upcoming Sunday. If both teams were to stumble, their playoff odds would sit at an enticing 98%.

With that settled, what about the AFC South crown? The Colts currently have a 40% chance to win the division and guarantee themselves a home playoff game. What makes their probability so unfavorable is the fact that Tennessee holds every tiebreaker (head-to-head record, division record, etc.) against them.

Because of that, Indianapolis would need to win out and watch Tennessee lose to either one of Green Bay or Houston to have a realistic chance — 93%, according to fivethirtyeight.com — to capture the division title. If both teams lose this week, their AFC South odds would drop to 29%. If both win, their odds would drop to a measly 25%.

That pretty much sums it up, folks. The Colts essentially control their own destiny as far as securing a playoff berth is concerned. For them to have a chance at winning the division, however, they desperately need the Packers to dispose of the Titans in primetime on Sunday night.

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