Colts at Rams: Vegas Spread, Analysis, and Picks
By Andrew Ites
Las Vegas has had a tough time putting a line on this game with Andrew Luck’s uncertain future, but they’ve finally made the Rams the favorite to go 1-0.
Andrew Luck‘s recovery from offseason shoulder surgery affected everyone’s analysis of the Colts heading into the 2017 season. There didn’t seem to be much reason for panic when Luck wasn’t healthy in June or July, but August rolled around and Luck still wasn’t able to throw a ball.
Luck is one of the most valuable players in the NFL, and Las Vegas oddsmakers know it.
According to SportsbookReview.com, the Colts opened as 3-point favorites when the lines for Week 1 were released this spring. NFL teams’ home-field advantages are normally worth around 3 points, so this means that Vegas thought the Colts were about 6 points better than the Rams.
Now that Andrew Luck has been officially ruled out for this week’s game, the line has completely flipped and the Rams are now favored by 3 to 3.5 points across the betting market. According to these line moves, Vegas figures that Andrew Luck is worth about 6 points for the Colts, especially with a below-average backup quarterback like Scott Tolzien taking over.
Next: Chris Ballard Encouraged by Ryan Kelly’s Recovery
The game’s point total also took a big hit with the latest Andrew Luck news. The game’s point total opened at 47, and has now moved all the way down to 41.5. Even with Indianapolis’ subpar defense points might be hard to come by in this game.
Picks
LA Rams -3
The loss of Andrew Luck will be too much to handle for the Colts, and the Rams’ offense looked improved this preseason.
Over 41.5
LA’s best defensive player Aaron Donald will likely miss this game, and I wouldn’t trust this Colts defense to stop anyone right now.