According to NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport, two big-named nose tackles are expected to escape their team’s franchise tag and hit the open free agent market: the Kansas City Chiefs Dontari Poe and the Baltimore Ravens Brandon Williams respectively:
#Chiefs are not expected to franchise tag Dontari Poe. The #Ravens are not expected to tag Brandon Williams. Big DTs hitting the FA market
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 1, 2017
Of course, with last year’s starter David Parry recently arrested in Arizona, the Colts could be in the market for an upgrade at starting nose tackle.
Given that Parry is presumably ‘serviceable’ at best as a starter and arguably better served long-term as a rotational defensive lineman, the Colts may have been in the market regardless.
It’s worth noting that new general manager Chris Ballard already has a great familiarity with Poe, as he previously served as the Kansas City Chiefs Director of Player Personnel from 2013-15 prior to joining the Colts.
Under Ballard, the Colts aren’t expected to build their roster through free agency:
"“Now saying that, between street free agents, between waiver claims, we’ll get into free agency a little bit, but you can’t buy a locker room,” said Ballard in his introductory press conference.”“You have to be very careful when you enter into free agency, but we’re going to try to acquire as many young players that we can to field a competitive roster.”"
That being said, armed with roughly $54 million of cap space this offseason, the Colts have the potential to make at least a major splash or two as it relates to marquee free agents.
Regarding Poe, the 6’3″, 346 pound nose tackle was the 11th overall pick of the 2012 NFL Draft by by the Kansas City Chiefs (just 10 picks after Andrew Luck) and is blessed with immense size, strength, and surprising quickness.
He’s already been named a 2x Pro Bowler and 2nd-Team All-Pro in his short career.
The 26 year old nose tackle is coming off a season in which he recorded 27 tackles, 1.5 sacks, and a forced fumble (as well as this ‘Tebow-like’ touchdown pass) in all 16 starts for the Chiefs.
Nevertheless, the mammoth nose tackle doesn’t always play up to his immense physical potential, as per Pro Football Focus (subscription), Poe was ranked as only the 59th best ‘interior defender’ with just a +55.8 grade overall–including a meager +46.7 run stopping grade.
However, he’s just one year removed from earning a Top 12 run defense grade among all defensive tackles–meaning there’s some definite potential for run dominance here.
Any team that gives Poe a lucrative mega-deal would be rolling the dice on his physical ability and potential, and that his best football is still yet to come–even if his production simply hasn’t been consistent enough on a year-to-year basis.
Meanwhile, Williams was a 2013 3rd round pick of the Baltimore Ravens, which means that he should have no problem playing in Colts head coach Chuck Pagano‘s similar defensive scheme.
The 6’1″, 340 pound nose tackle is fresh off of a season in which he recorded 51 tackles, 1.0 sack, and a pass defensed in all 16 starts for the Baltimore Ravens.
Per Pro Football Focus, the 28 year old graded out as their 39th best ‘interior defender’ with a +75.9 grade overall–including a +77.9 run defense grade.
Between the two, Poe probably has the higher upside, but also greater ‘boom or bust’ potential, whereas Williams could be the safer signing all things considered–as he seems like he’ll be a very good starting nose tackle for whichever NFL team he signs with.
Whatever the case may be, the Colts could clearly use a difference-maker to anchor the middle of their defense:
"“Look, in this league you win up-front,” added Ballard. “You win on the o-line, d-line, and if you’re not good up-front, it’s very difficult when you get into December football. December, January football.”"
Historically, nearly every great 3-4 defense has had a dominant nose tackle whether it be the New England Patriots Vince Wilfork (or Ted Washington), the Pittsburgh Steelers Casey Hampton, the San Diego Chargers Jamal Williams, etc.
Since installing Pagano’s 3-4 defense in 2012, the Colts simply haven’t had that caliber of nose tackle–having shuffled through the likes of Antonio Johnson, Aubrayo Franklin, Josh Chapman, and most recently, Parry at the position among others.
Like the Colts starting center position–until Ryan Kelly‘s selection, it’s been one of the key positions that has been a revolving door in recent seasons.
Next: Report: Jack Doyle Plans to Test the Free Agent Market
If the Colts so choose, the team could potentially find a difference-making nose tackle in either Poe or Williams in free agency to anchor their defense for the foreseeable future.
It’s just a matter of whether the team may be willing to pay the exorbitant price tag that either young standout figures to command on the open market.