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Andrew Luck Named in ‘Tier 2’ of ESPN’s NFL QB Rankings

By Luke Schultheis

Aug 7, 2016; Canton, OH, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck, right, talks with Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, left, prior to the 2016 Hall of Fame Game at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium. The game was cancelled due to safety concerns with the condition of the playing surface. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 7, 2016; Canton, OH, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck, right, talks with Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, left, prior to the 2016 Hall of Fame Game at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium. The game was cancelled due to safety concerns with the condition of the playing surface. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports /
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According to ESPN’s 3rd Annual NFL QB Tier Rankings, Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck is in the 2nd tier, as he’s ranked as the 7th best player at his position overall.

The ranking came from a panel of 42 league insiders including 10 general managers, 5 head coaches, 7 offensive coordinators, 5 defensive coordinators, 8 personnel evaluators, and 7 other position coaches/executives.

Here’s the breakdown for Luck, who’s behind Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton, Drew Brees, and Russell Wilson respectively:

"7. Andrew Luck | Indianapolis ColtsAvg. rating: 1.67 | Change in rating: -45.8% | 2015 rank: 3Aug 4, 2016; Anderson, IN, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) launches a pass during the Indianapolis Colts NFL training camp at Anderson University. Mandatory Credit: Mykal McEldowney/Indy Star via USA TODAY NETWORKVoters had to decide how much to downgrade Luck following an injury-shortened 2015 season that saw him struggle. Luck got 16 votes in the first tier, 24 in the second and two in the third. That was a significant shift from 2015, when 30 of 35 voters placed him in the top tier.“Luck is a 1,” a defensive coordinator said. “He was still able to come out and compete with a lacerated kidney. The man had a lacerated kidney for how many games until it was, ‘OK, it’s bleeding too much and I can’t play’? Who are his wide receivers? T.Y. Hilton. Does he have a great running back at this stage? The combination of his arm strength, his intelligence, his physical ability — he could carry a football team and he did it his first few years.”A GM said he thought “a large swath of teams” would choose Luck over Rodgers if both were available on the market, based on Luck’s long-range outlook. That doesn’t change Luck’s stat line for his last 16 games, counting playoffs: 56.8 completion rate, 30 TDs, 22 INTs, 78.9 passer rating and 48.9 Total QBR.“I’m much higher on Andrew Luck than a lot of people because I think the problem with Andrew Luck is all that’s surrounding him sucks so bad, including their defense, that it impacts him as a player,” another GM said. “There are days I want to put him as a 1, but I will go high, high 2 right now.”A great majority of voters expected Luck to bounce back. A couple were less sure.“I did think he was a surefire 1,” another GM said. “Do I think he has a great future? I don’t know. He played really bad last year, even when he was healthy. I’m interested in seeing how he responds this year.”"

It speaks to how highly Luck is still valued that despite a down season, in which he threw for just 15 touchdowns to 12 interceptions and a career low passer rating of 74.9–having gone just 2-5 in starts, that he’s still considered among one of the top quarterbacks in football.

Jan 18, 2015; Foxborough, MA, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) shakes hands with New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) after the AFC Championship Game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stew Milne-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 18, 2015; Foxborough, MA, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) shakes hands with New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) after the AFC Championship Game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stew Milne-USA TODAY Sports /

That being said, he did fall from his #3 ranking just a season ago, when he led the league with 40 touchdown passes and carried the Colts to the AFC Championship game.

Nevertheless, league personnel still believe he’s closer to the player we saw in 2014 then the one we saw struggle last season–even when he was healthy.

It makes sense too, as Luck battled injuries for the majority of the 7 games he played and was forced to start behind a woeful Colts offensive line, as well as tasked with throwing to a clearly diminished Andre Johnson as one of his primary wideouts–who struggled consistently getting separation.

Now fully healthy and with the additions of Ryan Kelly, offensive line coach Joe Philbin, and other young talent in the trenches, Luck should be much improved this upcoming season as he should be given more time to make plays in the pocket.

Not to mention, it’s another year of seasoning for his young receivers, who continue to develop and improve.

If all goes according to plan for the Colts, Luck should be a serious contender for the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year–maybe even an MVP candidate and find himself back in ‘Tier 1’ of the truly elite quarterbacks in football.

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